Strong US growth tilt with momentum overlay and very short performance history
Report created on May 9, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
FX Fidelity 500 Index Fund
FXAIX - US3159117502 70.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 20.00% -
SP Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund
SPAXX - US31617H1023 10.00%
This portfolio is built around a single broad US equity index fund at 70%, paired with a 20% momentum-focused ETF and 10% in a government money market fund. So most of the portfolio is in growth-oriented US stocks, with a small but meaningful cash-like buffer. The structure is simple and easy to understand, which can make it easier to follow how it behaves. With only three holdings, diversification comes mainly from what’s inside the two equity funds, not from holding many different products. Because the history available is only about eight months, any patterns seen so far should be treated as early snapshots rather than long-term behavior.
Growth
Over the roughly eight‑month window, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $1,152, implying a very high annualized CAGR of 129%. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is like averaging your speed over a road trip, but over this short stretch it mostly reflects a strong recent run rather than a realistic long-term pace. The max drawdown, or worst peak‑to‑trough drop, was about -6.5%, very similar to the US market benchmark, and it recovered in under a month. Compared with the global market, the portfolio lagged slightly over this period. With such a limited sample, though, these numbers are more about recent conditions than a reliable guide to decades.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the short performance history to simulate many possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. Monte Carlo just means the computer re‑mixes returns thousands of times to see a range of outcomes, instead of assuming one straight line. Here, the median result lands around $2,634, with most scenarios between about $1,778 and $3,899. The average simulated annual return of 7.6% is in line with long‑run equity assumptions, but it’s built off less than a year of real data. That makes the numbers more illustrative than predictive: they’re useful for showing uncertainty and ranges, not for setting hard expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- Cash 10%
By asset class, about 90% sits in stocks and 10% in cash-like holdings via the government money market fund. That’s a clearly growth‑oriented mix: most of the risk and return potential comes from equities, with only a modest buffer in very low‑volatility assets. Compared with many broad “market” allocations that include bonds, this portfolio is more equity‑heavy. The 10% cash slice can help soften short‑term swings a bit and provide stability, but it won’t dramatically change the overall stock‑driven behavior. Over longer horizons, such a stock‑dominant structure tends to rely heavily on how equity markets evolve, which we can’t infer confidently from eight months of history.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Cash 10%
- Financials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 7%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans hardest into technology at about 33%, with the rest spread across financials, telecom, industrials, health care, consumer areas, energy, utilities, materials, real estate, plus 10% in cash. This pattern is broadly similar to many modern US market indices, which are also tech‑tilted. A tech‑heavy profile often does well when growth expectations are high and interest rates are stable or falling, but can feel sharper swings when rates rise or sentiment flips. The presence of multiple other sectors helps avoid “all‑or‑nothing” exposure to one theme. Given the short track record, it’s better to think of this as a structural tilt toward tech‑influenced growth rather than a proven performance edge.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Cash 10%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, about 90% of the portfolio is in North American equities, with the remaining 10% in cash. That means the equity risk is essentially tied to one major market and currency, the US dollar. Compared with global benchmarks like MSCI ACWI, which spread across many regions, this portfolio is clearly home‑biased toward the US. That alignment with the US market explains why performance and drawdowns look similar to the US benchmark over the observed period. A focused geography can do very well when that region is strong, but it also means results are more dependent on that single economy’s cycles. With only eight months of data, regional leadership or lagging can’t be treated as a lasting pattern.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 40%
- Large-cap 34%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market capitalization exposure is dominated by mega‑caps at 40% and large‑caps at 34%, with mid‑caps at 15% and a small 1% in small‑caps. That’s quite similar to broad US indices, which are also led by very large companies. Bigger companies often have more diversified businesses and more stable access to capital, which can make their share prices somewhat steadier than very small firms. At the same time, mega‑caps can become an outsized driver of index moves when a handful of names rally or fall together. In this portfolio, the bias toward larger stocks suggests behavior should loosely track headline US market movements, at least structurally, even if we only see a brief window of actual performance.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 1.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.58%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 0.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
XO Exxon Mobil Corp 0.66%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 0.64%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 0.61%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
CA Caterpillar Inc 0.58%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 10.09%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the top holdings of the momentum ETF, the largest visible positions include NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, the two Alphabet share classes, and several other well‑known large US names. Each one is a relatively small slice of the overall portfolio, with NVIDIA the largest at about 1.8%. Because only the ETF’s top‑10 holdings are captured, true overlap across funds is likely higher than shown. Still, it’s clear that a handful of big technology and growth firms appear inside the momentum sleeve, adding to the portfolio’s existing large‑cap growth feel. This “hidden” concentration is common in index and factor funds; it just means the same giants can influence returns from multiple directions.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
On factor exposure, there’s a very high tilt toward momentum at about 75%, a very low exposure to size (meaning a tilt away from smaller companies), and low exposure to yield and low volatility. Factor exposure is like looking at the underlying “personality traits” of the portfolio: momentum, value, size, and so on. A strong momentum tilt tends to benefit when recent winners keep winning, but it can hurt more in sudden reversals when trends break. The low size exposure lines up with the heavy mega‑ and large‑cap bias. Because we only have a short history, these factor readings describe the current construction more than a proven long‑term behavioral pattern.
Risk contribution
-
Fidelity 500 Index Fund
Weight: 70.00% 74.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 20.00% 24.4% -
Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund
Weight: 10.00% 1.5%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from its percentage weight. Here, the S&P 500 index fund is 70% of the portfolio but contributes about 74% of total risk, so its impact is almost exactly proportional to its size. The momentum ETF is 20% by weight and about 24% of risk, meaning it punches a bit above its weight, which is typical for a more focused, higher‑beta strategy. The money market fund is 10% of assets but only about 1.5% of risk, reflecting its very low volatility. Overall, equity risk is concentrated in the two stock funds, which is consistent with a growth‑oriented profile.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier chart compares this portfolio’s risk and return to other mixes using the same three holdings. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above the risk‑free rate, is 4.12 for the current mix, versus 4.59 for the “optimal” blend on the frontier. The current portfolio also sits about 4 percentage points below the frontier at its risk level, suggesting that, based purely on recent data, a different weighting of these same funds could have delivered higher risk‑adjusted returns. Because that frontier is built on only eight months of history, it’s best read as “this is how the recent period looked” rather than a firm blueprint for the long run.
Dividends
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 1.10%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund 2.30%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.14%
The portfolio’s overall yield is about 1.14%, combining a 1.10% yield from the S&P 500 index fund, 0.70% from the momentum ETF, and 2.30% from the government money market fund. Dividend yield is the income paid out each year as a percentage of the investment’s price, like a “cashback” rate. Here, most of the long‑term return expectation still comes from price appreciation rather than income, which is typical for a growth‑tilted US equity mix. The relatively higher yield on the money market fund contributes steady interest, but it’s a small portion of the total. With such a short performance history, the current yield gives a snapshot of income today, not a guarantee of future payments.
Ongoing product costs
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund 0.02%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Total ongoing fund costs, measured by the TER (total expense ratio), are very low at about 0.04% overall. That comes from a 0.02% TER on the S&P 500 index fund and 0.13% on the momentum ETF, with the money market fund typically also priced competitively. Low costs matter because fees come off returns every year, and even small differences can compound significantly over decades. In this case, the cost drag is minimal, which is a clear structural strength of the portfolio. Regardless of how markets evolve or how the short performance history eventually looks, a low‑fee setup gives more of any future returns a chance to stay in the portfolio rather than going out in charges.
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