Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and impressive historic risk adjusted performance
Report created on Mar 25, 2026Risk profile
- Secure Speculative
The risk profile, derived from past market volatility, reflects the level of risk the portfolio is exposed to. This assessment helps align your investments with your financial goals and comfort with market fluctuations.
Diversification profile
- Focused Diversified
The diversification assessment evaluates the spread of investments across asset classes, regions, and sectors. This ensures a balanced mix, reducing risk and maximizing returns by not concentrating in any single area.
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 54.04% -
VU Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
VUG - US9229087369 13.77% -
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 10.24% -
CV Chevron Corp
CVX - US1667641005 9.90% -
GO Alphabet Inc Class A
GOOGL - US02079K3059 9.65% -
NV NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - US67066G1040 2.40%
This portfolio is almost entirely built from three broad US equity ETFs plus three large individual stocks, with stocks effectively 100% of the allocation. The S&P 500 core position dominates at just over half the portfolio, while growth and tech-heavy ETFs plus three big single names create a focused growth tilt. Structurally, this is a simple, easy-to-follow setup with most risk coming from a handful of positions. That simplicity is helpful for monitoring, but it also means each decision matters more. Anyone using a structure like this should be very intentional about the high equity weight and the big role of a few growth-oriented holdings.
Growth
Over the last decade, the historical performance has been exceptional. A hypothetical $1,000 grew to about $9,300, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.41%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out ups and downs. This crushed both the US market (14.27% CAGR) and global market (11.72% CAGR). Max drawdown, the worst peak‑to‑trough fall, was about -35%, only slightly worse than broad markets, which is impressive given the growth tilt. But 90% of gains came from just 47 days, showing returns were very lumpy. This kind of history is great, but it doesn’t guarantee future results, especially after such a strong decade for growth stocks.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection simulates many possible 10‑year futures using the portfolio’s historical return and volatility pattern. Think of it as running 1,000 alternate “market movies” and seeing where you end up. The median outcome is very high, with a 50th percentile cumulative return above 2,400% and even the 5th percentile above 280%. The average simulated annual return is over 30%, which reflects the stellar backtest. But simulations that rely on recent history can easily overstate future potential, especially after an unusually strong run for certain styles. The useful message here is less about exact numbers and more about the wide range of possible outcomes, even for a historically strong portfolio.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class exposure is extremely straightforward: 100% stocks, no bonds, cash, or alternatives large enough to show up. That makes this a pure growth engine without a built‑in stabilizer like high-quality bonds. Equity‑only portfolios typically see sharper swings during market selloffs but also capture more of the upside in bull markets. Compared to many broad benchmarks or balanced portfolios, this is clearly tilted toward capital growth rather than capital preservation or income. For someone comfortable with volatility and a long horizon, that can be appropriate, but it relies heavily on the ability to stay invested through large, multi‑year drawdowns.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Telecommunications 19%
- Energy 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Financials 7%
- Health Care 7%
- Industrials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward growth and cyclicality. Technology around 33% and communication services around 19% together make over half the portfolio, with energy boosted by Chevron near 12%. More defensive areas like utilities, consumer defensive, and real estate are small. Versus broad market norms, this is more tech-and-communication heavy and less balanced across all parts of the economy. Tech-heavy allocations often do very well when innovation and low interest rates support valuations, but they can be hit harder when rates rise or leadership shifts to more value-oriented sectors. The energy stake does add a useful diversifier versus pure tech growth.
Regions
- North America 99%
Geographically, the exposure is almost entirely North American, at about 99%. That aligns closely with the underlying holdings, which are all US-listed large caps and broad US indexes. Compared with global benchmarks that hold significant non‑US exposure, this is a clear home‑country tilt. The benefit is alignment with the world’s deepest, most transparent equity market, which has also outperformed many regions in the last decade. The tradeoff is less diversification if the US market underperforms or faces region‑specific shocks. Some investors are comfortable with this US focus, while others prefer to spread risk across multiple major economies over the long run.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 62%
- Large-cap 25%
- Mid-cap 12%
- Small-cap 1%
Market cap exposure leans very heavily into the largest companies: about 62% mega-cap and 25% big-cap, with only modest mid-cap and tiny small-cap exposure. That’s very similar to capitalization-weighted US benchmarks and reflects the dominance of a few huge firms in modern markets. Large caps often provide more stability and liquidity than small caps, and recent years have rewarded mega-cap growth especially strongly. The flip side is limited exposure to the potential higher long-term return (and higher volatility) of smaller companies. With most of the action tied to a small group of giants, portfolio behavior will track their fortunes very closely.
True holdings
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 12.46%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
CV Chevron Corp 10.22%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 9.00%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 6.04%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.28%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.27%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.24%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.91%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 53.90%
Looking through all funds, there’s meaningful hidden concentration in a few mega-cap names. Alphabet totals about 12.5% once you include direct stock plus ETF exposure, Chevron sits just over 10%, and NVIDIA is around 9%. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet’s other share class, Meta, Broadcom, and Tesla all add further large-cap tech and communication exposure via the ETFs. Because only ETF top‑10 holdings are captured, real overlap is likely higher. This setup amplifies the influence of a small group of giants on overall returns and risk. It can be powerful when those names do well but can hurt when leadership rotates away from mega-cap growth.
Factors
Factor exposure shows strong tilts toward quality, low volatility, and yield, with meaningful momentum and moderate value. Factors are like underlying “traits” of stocks—such as being profitable, stable, cheap, or fast-rising—that research has linked to returns over decades. A high quality exposure suggests a focus on companies with solid balance sheets and consistent earnings, which can cushion downturns. Low volatility exposure points to somewhat smoother price moves than a pure high-octane growth basket. Momentum exposure means holding recent winners, which helps in trending markets but can hurt in sudden reversals. Signal coverage isn’t perfect, so readings aren’t precise, but overall the factor mix looks well aligned with long-term evidence-based investing.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 54.04% 49.4% -
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 13.77% 14.7% -
Alphabet Inc Class A
Weight: 9.65% 11.4% -
Invesco QQQ Trust
Weight: 10.24% 11.2% -
Chevron Corp
Weight: 9.90% 9.0% - Top 5 risk contribution 95.7%
Risk contribution shows how much each position drives overall volatility, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the S&P 500 ETF at 54% weight contributes about 49% of total risk, the growth ETF roughly 15%, and Alphabet around 11%. The top three positions together drive over 75% of portfolio risk. That’s a lot of influence from a small set of holdings, even though they’re broadly diversified vehicles or mega-cap stocks. When risk-to-weight ratios are near or just above 1, it means positions are roughly pulling their “fair share” of risk. Adjusting position sizes, rather than adding complexity, is often the cleanest way to tweak how concentrated the risk profile feels.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFInvesco QQQ TrustVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
The ETFs—S&P 500, QQQ, and Vanguard Growth—are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move up and down together. Correlation measures how similarly assets behave; when it’s high, the diversification benefit is smaller, especially in market stress. Here, even though there are multiple line items, much of the risk is tied to the same underlying US large-cap growth universe. That’s why drawdowns can still be large despite holding “many” stocks via funds. The single-stock positions in Chevron, Alphabet, and NVIDIA add some idiosyncratic risk, but they’re still embedded in the same market ecosystem. The main takeaway is that apparent breadth doesn’t always translate into true diversification.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk vs. return chart, the current portfolio sits on the efficient frontier, meaning that given these specific holdings, the mix is already using risk efficiently. The Sharpe ratio—return per unit of volatility—is solid at 0.84, better than the minimum-variance mix at 0.79. The model suggests a more aggressive “optimal” allocation could push expected return and Sharpe higher, but that would involve meaningfully more risk, which not everyone wants. A same-risk optimized version shows that minor reweighting among existing holdings might squeeze out slightly better expected returns, but the current setup is already in a strong spot from a pure efficiency standpoint.
Dividends
- Chevron Corp 3.30%
- Alphabet Inc Class A 0.30%
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.20%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.50%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.11%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.11%, with Chevron’s roughly 3.3% standing out as the main income driver. Dividends are cash payments from companies and can be an important part of total return over long periods, especially in steadier, income-focused portfolios. Here, the relatively low yield fits a growth-oriented approach centered on companies that reinvest earnings rather than pay them out. That can support faster business expansion but provides less cash flow during rough markets. For investors who don’t need current income and are focused on reinvestment and compounding, a modest yield like this is generally consistent with their objectives.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs look impressively low. The core S&P 500 ETF charges just 0.03%, the growth ETF 0.04%, and QQQ 0.20%, with a blended total expense ratio around 0.04%. Fees are like a permanent headwind: even small differences compound meaningfully over decades. Keeping them this low supports better net returns, especially when using broad index exposure where cost is one of the biggest controllable levers. This aligns really well with best practices in long-term investing. With costs already near rock-bottom, further improvement would come more from optimizing diversification and risk balance rather than hunting for cheaper products.
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