Highly concentrated aggressive equity portfolio with single stock risk dominating otherwise diversified global exposure
Report created on Mar 18, 2026Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
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FR Fermi Inc. Common Stock
FRMI 31.00% -
AR iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
ARTY - US46435U5561 23.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 23.00% -
VW Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
VWO - US9220428588 23.00%
The structure is very equity-heavy, with 99% in stocks and 1% in cash, and a big tilt toward one name: Fermi at 31% of the portfolio. The rest is split evenly across three broad ETFs, each around 23%, giving exposure to the entire domestic market, emerging markets, and a focused AI and tech theme. A setup like this is basically “all-in” on growth and market upside, with minimal ballast to soften drawdowns. The main implication is that overall behavior will be driven much more by equity market swings and especially by what happens to Fermi, rather than by the broad ETFs.
Growth
Historically, the numbers are harsh: a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of about -46% and a max drawdown of roughly -24%. CAGR is like your long-term “average speed” over time; here it means substantial erosion of capital compared with typical equity benchmarks, which have been positive over long periods. The fact that just one day made up 90% of returns shows extremely lumpy performance, more like a lottery ticket than a smooth ride. This underperformance versus broad markets suggests that the concentrated exposure, likely Fermi, has dominated and dragged overall results despite the diversified ETF sleeve.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation uses historical patterns to randomly generate many possible future paths and see a range of outcomes, a bit like rolling loaded dice based on past data. Here, 1,000 simulations all ended with negative results, with even the 67th percentile (a “better than average” scenario) still losing everything. That suggests the model is picking up severe negative drift from the historic return stream, likely dominated by the single-stock performance. It’s vital to remember that simulations are only as good as the inputs; if the past was especially bad or unusual, the projections can look catastrophically pessimistic and may understate any recovery potential.
Asset classes
- Stocks 99%
- Cash 1%
Asset-class exposure is simple: it’s almost pure stock, with a token 1% in cash and nothing in bonds or alternatives. For context, many aggressive profiles still include some fixed income or diversifiers to blunt volatility and provide dry powder in downturns. This portfolio instead chooses maximum equity participation, which can pay off in long bull markets but also exposes the full portfolio value to equity bear markets and company-specific shocks. The strong point is clarity: it’s easy to understand what you own. The trade-off is accepting that drawdowns will likely be sharper than in mixed-asset portfolios with bonds or other stabilizers.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- No data 31%
- Financials 8%
- Telecommunications 5%
- Industrials 5%
- Consumer Discretionary 5%
- Health Care 3%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Consumer Staples 2%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector-wise, technology stands out at 33%, and another 31% is labeled “unknown” due to the single Fermi position, so the true sector picture is even more skewed than the table shows. Other sectors like financials, communication services, industrials, cyclicals, and healthcare are each in mid–single digits, mainly coming from the diversified index ETFs. This composition is meaningfully more tech- and growth-oriented than a typical broad market mix. Tech-heavy allocations can do very well in innovation-driven booms but often react more sharply to rising interest rates, regulatory concerns, or shifts in investor sentiment away from growth stories.
Regions
- North America 39%
- No data 31%
- Asia Emerging 13%
- Asia Developed 11%
- Africa/Middle East 3%
- Latin America 2%
- Europe Developed 1%
- Japan 1%
Geographically, there is a solid global spread: about 39% in North America, 24% across emerging and developed Asia, plus smaller exposures to Africa/Middle East, Latin America, and Europe. That’s actually more globally diversified than a typical U.S.-only investor, and it aligns well with global allocation ideas for long-term growth. The big wildcard is the 31% “unknown” slice, which is Fermi; its true domicile and revenue mix would further shape geographic risk. Still, the ETF portion alone provides a nice blend of developed and emerging market exposure, which can help if leadership rotates away from U.S. markets over time.
Market capitalization
- Mid-cap 44%
- Mega-cap 29%
- Large-cap 21%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans toward medium and large companies: roughly 44% mid-cap, 21% big, and 29% mega-cap, with only small slices in small and micro caps. This is less top-heavy than a classic mega-cap benchmark and introduces a size tilt, meaning more exposure to mid-size firms that can grow faster but can also be more volatile. Size exposure here matches the factor data showing a strong size tilt. In practical terms, returns may deviate more from mainstream large-cap indices, sometimes outperforming when mid-caps lead and lagging when mega-cap giants dominate performance.
True holdings
-
-
23 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. 4.18%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 2.48%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.38%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 1.35%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.04%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
MR Marvell Technology Group Ltd 1.03%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 1.01%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
00 SK Hynix Inc 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
- Top 10 total 46.41%
Looking through the ETFs, coverage of underlying holdings reaches about 69% of the portfolio, with 31% coming directly from Fermi alone. The top ETF look-through exposures are well-known semiconductor and tech names like TSMC, NVIDIA, Micron, Broadcom, and Microsoft, mostly via the AI and tech ETF. Overlap risk from the ETFs themselves is modest compared with the single-stock Fermi position, since that one company is not a major index or ETF holding here. The real hidden concentration is simply how much of total risk and outcome is tied to one business rather than a cluster of overlapping mega-cap tech names.
Factors
Factor exposure data highlights strong tilts to size, momentum, and low volatility, though coverage is incomplete. Factors are like the underlying “traits” of stocks—size, value, momentum—that explain why they move the way they do. A high size exposure means more smaller companies than a market-neutral mix. Momentum exposure indicates holdings that have recently performed well, which can help in trending markets but can hurt in sharp reversals. The low volatility tilt suggests some preference for steadier names within the universe, which can cushion declines a bit. With missing data on value, quality, and yield, the factor picture is helpful but not fully reliable.
Risk contribution
-
Fermi Inc. Common Stock
Weight: 31.00% 82.9% -
iShares Future AI & Tech ETF
Weight: 23.00% 9.8% -
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 23.00% 4.1% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 23.00% 3.2%
Risk contribution numbers are stark: Fermi is 31% of the weight but contributes about 83% of total portfolio risk, giving it a risk-to-weight ratio of 2.67. The three ETFs together are about 69% of the weight but only around 17% of the risk, so they act as stabilizers relative to Fermi. Risk contribution measures how much each position drives the overall ups and downs, which can differ a lot from simple weight. Here, the message is clear: outcomes are overwhelmingly tied to one single stock. Any decision-making around position sizing in Fermi has an outsized impact on the portfolio’s total risk profile.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, the current portfolio sits below the efficient frontier, which is the curve of best possible returns for each risk level using these same holdings. The optimizer suggests that at the same risk you’re currently taking, an expected return of about 21.5% could be achieved just by changing weights, not adding new investments. That means the present allocation is not making the most of the risk budget, mainly due to the oversized Fermi position. Rebalancing toward the optimal mix along the frontier could significantly improve the risk/return tradeoff while still keeping the overall aggressive equity stance intact.
Dividends
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.87%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 0.87%, which is quite low and signals a focus on growth and capital appreciation rather than income. The broad U.S. market ETF yields around 1.1%, and emerging markets about 2.7%, but those are offset by lower- or non-dividend-paying positions, particularly the tech-heavy and single-stock components. For someone not relying on regular cash payouts, a low yield is not inherently negative; it just means more of the expected payoff is from price appreciation. In rough markets, however, having a modest income stream can feel comforting and reduce the need to sell holdings at bad times.
Ongoing product costs
- iShares Future AI & Tech ETF 0.47%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 0.08%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
The costs are impressively low overall, with a blended TER around 0.13%. The broad market ETFs are extremely cheap at 0.03% and 0.08%, and even the thematic AI & tech ETF at 0.47% is reasonable for a more specialized strategy. Keeping costs down is one of the few levers investors can control directly, and lower fees compound into better long-term outcomes, especially over decades. From a cost perspective, this setup is well-aligned with best practices and compares very favorably with many actively managed portfolios or high-fee products. Cost drag is clearly not the main issue driving performance here.
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