Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong tech tilt and historically high returns but deep drawdowns
Report created on Jun 1, 2024Risk profile
6/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
AA Apple Inc.
AAPL - US0378331005 23.00% -
AM Amazon.com Inc
AMZN - US0231351067 20.00% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 18.00% -
VG Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
VGT - US92204A7028 16.00% -
TS Tesla Inc
TSLA - US88160R1014 12.00% -
DI Walt Disney Company
DIS - US2546871060 11.00%
This portfolio is made up of just six holdings, all individual US stocks and US equity ETFs, with no bonds or cash. The three largest single stocks—Apple, Amazon, and Tesla—together make up 55% of the portfolio, while the two Vanguard ETFs account for 34%. This creates a clearly growth-oriented structure with a big focus on a handful of well-known companies. A concentrated mix like this can be easier to follow but also means each holding has a meaningful impact on overall results. The low diversification score reflects this narrow spread: when these specific names do well, the portfolio can shine, but weak periods for them will be strongly felt across the whole allocation.
Growth
Over the 2016–2026 period, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $9,293, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.1%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps to show the steady pace. This significantly outpaced both the US market (15.42% CAGR) and the global market (12.76% CAGR). The trade-off was a max drawdown of -52.23%, far deeper than the roughly -34% for the benchmarks. Drawdown measures the worst peak-to-trough fall, showing how painful a bad stretch can be. Returns were also concentrated in just 42 days, meaning missing a few strong days would have changed the picture a lot.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses 1,000 simulations based on past volatility and returns to map a range of possible 15-year outcomes. Think of it as running the market 1,000 alternate “what if” timelines using the portfolio’s historical behavior. The median outcome grows $1,000 to about $2,765, with a likely middle range of roughly $1,730–$4,107 and a wide possible band from $960 to $7,425. The average simulated annual return is 8.11%, with about 72% of simulations ending positive. These are not promises; they just show how the same risk/return pattern could play out under many random paths. Real markets can, of course, behave very differently from the past.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio is in stocks, with 100% equity exposure and no allocation to bonds, cash, or alternatives. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and real estate that tend to respond differently to economic conditions. A single-asset-class portfolio like this usually moves more with the stock market’s ups and downs and doesn’t get the stabilizing effect that fixed income or cash can provide in tough periods. This all-equity stance fits the “aggressive” risk classification and helps explain both the strong long-term performance and the substantial drawdown. Compared with broad multi-asset benchmarks, the portfolio clearly prioritizes growth potential over smoother return patterns.
Sectors
- Technology 45%
- Consumer Discretionary 34%
- Telecommunications 13%
- Financials 2%
- Industrials 2%
- Health Care 2%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Energy 1%
Sector-wise, this portfolio is dominated by Technology at 45%, with Consumer Discretionary at 34% and the remaining sectors—Telecommunications, Financials, Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Energy—making up very small slices. Sectors group companies by their main line of business and can behave differently across economic cycles. Compared to a broad market index, this is a notably tech- and consumer-heavy mix, with limited exposure to more defensive or traditionally stable areas. Tech-tilted portfolios often do very well in periods of innovation and low interest rates but can be sensitive when rates rise or when growth expectations cool. The strong sector tilt helps explain both the high returns and the sharp swings observed.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% invested in North America, specifically US-listed companies and US-focused ETFs. Geography matters because different regions have distinct economic drivers, currencies, regulations, and political risks. A purely US-focused portfolio fully rides on the performance of a single country’s market, which has been very strong over the past decade. At the same time, it largely misses direct exposure to other major economies, which together make up a significant share of global stock market value. The alignment with the US market benchmark is tight from a regional standpoint, but diversification across countries is intentionally low, amplifying reliance on the US economy and the dollar.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 71%
- Large-cap 20%
- Mid-cap 5%
- Small-cap 2%
- Micro-cap 1%
Most of the portfolio sits in mega-cap and large-cap companies, with 71% in mega-caps and 20% in large-caps, and only modest exposure to mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks. Market capitalization (or “market cap”) measures a company’s size by its total stock value and often correlates with stability and business maturity. Larger companies tend to have more diversified revenue streams and stronger balance sheets, while smaller firms can be more volatile but sometimes grow faster. This portfolio leans heavily toward the biggest players, which helps anchor it in established businesses even as it targets growth. That large-cap focus also means its behavior is likely to resemble headline US market movements more than small-cap–dominated portfolios.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 3.88%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.44%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 0.52%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 0.51%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 79.91%
Looking through the ETFs, there is notable overlap with the direct stock positions. Apple’s total exposure is about 26.65%, slightly above the 23% direct holding once ETF slices are added. Amazon’s total exposure edges up to 20.57%, and Tesla’s to 12.29%. Overlap occurs when the same company appears via both single stocks and funds, quietly increasing concentration. In addition, names like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Broadcom show up through ETF positions, adding further tech flavor. Only ETF top-10 holdings are captured here, so overlap is likely understated. This means the portfolio is more concentrated in a handful of big growth companies than the raw six-line holding list might suggest at first glance.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows how the portfolio leans toward certain characteristics that research links to long-term returns. Here, quality is notably high at 72%, suggesting a tilt toward companies with strong profitability, stable earnings, and solid balance sheets. That can help during periods when investors favor financially robust businesses. Value exposure is low at 33% and yield is also low at 39%, meaning the portfolio is tilted away from cheaper, higher-dividend stocks and more toward growth-oriented names. Size is low, reflecting the focus on large companies rather than smaller ones. Momentum is neutral, so the portfolio’s tendency to follow recent performance is roughly market-like. Overall, this mix fits a high-quality growth profile rather than a value or income style.
Risk contribution
-
Apple Inc.
Weight: 23.00% 22.8% -
Amazon.com Inc
Weight: 20.00% 21.4% -
Tesla Inc
Weight: 12.00% 21.0% -
Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 16.00% 14.9% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 18.00% 12.1% - Top 5 risk contribution 92.2%
Risk contribution looks at how much each holding drives overall volatility, which can differ from simple weight. A 12% Tesla position contributes about 21% of the portfolio’s risk, with a risk/weight ratio of 1.75, meaning it punches well above its size in terms of ups and downs. Apple and Amazon have risk contributions (about 23% and 21%) roughly in line with or slightly above their weights. In contrast, the broad Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF carries 18% weight but only around 12% of risk, acting as a relative stabilizer. Together, the top three holdings contribute over 65% of total portfolio risk, underlining how strongly a few stocks dominate the portfolio’s day-to-day and drawdown behavior.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart shows the current portfolio with a Sharpe ratio of 0.87, compared to 1.08 for the optimal mix and 0.80 for the minimum-variance version. The Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted returns by comparing excess return (above a risk-free rate) to volatility—higher is better. The current portfolio sits about 1.63 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning that, with the same six holdings but different weights, history suggests higher return could have been achieved for this amount of risk. The minimum-variance portfolio offers lower risk but also lower returns. Overall, the portfolio is reasonably efficient but not fully optimized based on past data alone.
Dividends
- Apple Inc. 0.30%
- Walt Disney Company 1.40%
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.47%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is relatively low at 0.47%, with most income coming from Apple, Disney, and the Vanguard ETFs. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of the investment value and can be an important part of total return, especially in income-focused strategies. Here, the small yield fits the growth-oriented nature of the holdings: many of the key companies reinvest most of their profits into expansion rather than paying them out. That’s neither good nor bad by itself—it just means returns historically have come mainly from price appreciation rather than regular cash distributions, and future income expectations should be modest based on the current mix.
Ongoing product costs
- Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares 0.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.02%
Costs are a clear strength in this portfolio. The two ETFs used—Vanguard Total Stock Market (0.03% TER) and Vanguard Information Technology (0.10% TER)—are both low-cost options, and the overall portfolio-level TER comes out to about 0.02%. TER, or Total Expense Ratio, is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of invested assets. Lower ongoing costs mean less performance lost to fees over time, which compounds especially over long horizons. Individual stocks do not have ongoing management fees, so they don’t add to TER. This cost profile is impressively lean and aligns well with best practices for keeping structural frictions low in an equity-heavy portfolio.
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