This portfolio predominantly consists of US equities, with a 70% allocation in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, emphasizing large-cap stocks. The inclusion of the Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF at 20% introduces a tilt towards smaller, value-oriented companies within the US, potentially offering higher growth prospects but with added volatility. The Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares, making up 10%, provides some international diversification, though it's limited. This structure suggests a growth-oriented strategy with a moderate level of diversification, leaning heavily towards the US market.
Historically, this portfolio has delivered a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.04%, with a significant maximum drawdown of -36.23%. These figures indicate strong performance but also highlight periods of substantial volatility, particularly for growth-focused investors. The days contributing to 90% of returns being so few underscores the impact of short-term, significant market movements on overall performance. Comparing this to benchmarks, the high CAGR is commendable, yet the volatility warrants attention for risk management.
Monte Carlo simulations, which use historical data to forecast a range of possible outcomes, suggest a wide variance in potential future performance. With a median projected annualized return of 15.20% and 963 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the outlook seems optimistic. However, the broad range between the 5th and 67th percentiles indicates considerable uncertainty, emphasizing the portfolio's higher-risk profile.
The portfolio is entirely allocated to stocks, with no presence in bonds, cash, or alternative investments. This single-asset-class approach maximizes growth potential but also exposes the investor to higher market volatility. Diversifying across different asset classes could provide a buffer during stock market downturns, potentially smoothing out returns over time.
Sector allocation is heavily weighted towards technology and financial services, comprising 44% of the portfolio. This concentration in sectors that can exhibit high volatility but also offer significant growth opportunities reflects the portfolio's growth orientation. However, it may also increase susceptibility to sector-specific risks. Balancing this with allocations to more defensive sectors could mitigate some risk without drastically compromising growth potential.
With 90% of assets in North America, primarily the US, the portfolio's geographic exposure is quite concentrated. While this focus has historically benefited from the robust performance of US markets, it limits global diversification and exposure to potential growth in other regions. Increasing the allocation to international equities could enhance diversification and potentially reduce geographic risk.
The portfolio's market capitalization exposure is diversified across mega, big, medium, small, and micro-cap stocks, though with a clear lean towards larger companies. This blend supports the portfolio's growth objective while incorporating elements of value and small-cap investing, which can offer higher growth potential but with added risk. A more balanced approach might help in smoothing returns over different market cycles.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the Efficient Frontier, this portfolio shows a strong risk-return profile but may not be fully optimized for efficiency. Adjusting the asset allocation to include a broader mix could potentially move the portfolio closer to the Efficient Frontier, achieving a better balance of risk and return. This optimization process, however, should consider the investor's risk tolerance and investment horizon.
The portfolio's average dividend yield of 1.46% contributes to its total return, with the international fund offering the highest yield. While dividends are not the primary focus of this growth-oriented strategy, they provide a source of passive income and can offer some cushion during market dips. Balancing growth and income-producing assets could enhance the portfolio's yield without significantly compromising its growth potential.
With a total expense ratio (TER) of 0.08%, the portfolio is cost-efficient, minimizing the drag on performance due to fees. This is particularly beneficial in a growth-focused strategy, where keeping costs low is crucial for maximizing compounding returns over time.
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