Concentrated small cap value focus with strong recent gains but limited history and elevated risk
Report created on May 25, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
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AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 60.00% -
AV Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF
AVNM - US0250721745 10.00% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 10.00% -
DR Roundhill Memory ETF
DRAM 10.00% -
NO Nokia Corp ADR
NOK - US6549022043 5.00% -
PE Penguin Solutions, Inc.
PENG - KYG8232Y1017 5.00%
This portfolio is built around one core ETF in U.S. small cap value stocks at 60%, with three smaller ETF positions and two single-stock picks rounding it out. The remaining ETFs add broad U.S. large caps, international equities, and a more specialized theme, while Nokia and Penguin Solutions introduce direct company exposure. Structurally, this is an equity-heavy, growth-tilted mix with modest diversification across several vehicles but a clear anchor in one strategy. With only about two months of data, the numbers mostly describe a short snapshot, not a full market cycle, so any apparent patterns in behavior should be viewed as early impressions rather than long-term characteristics.
Growth
Over this roughly seven-week window, $1,000 in the portfolio grew to about $1,258, implying an annualized CAGR above 400%. That figure is mathematically correct but heavily distorted by the very short period and strong early returns, so it should not be read as a realistic long-term growth rate. The portfolio outpaced both U.S. and global equity benchmarks over this span, with only a shallow max drawdown of about -3.2%. Most gains came from just nine days, showing performance was concentrated in a few strong moves. With such limited history, these results mainly highlight that the portfolio has had a hot start, not that this pace is sustainable.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection estimates many possible 15‑year paths by reshuffling the pattern of past returns, like replaying the last two months in thousands of different sequences. The median outcome turns $1,000 into around $2,728, with a wide “likely” range and some scenarios roughly breaking even after 15 years. The overall simulated annual return of about 7.8% looks broadly in line with long-run equity assumptions, but here it’s derived from a very short return series. That makes these projections less reliable than usual; they’re more of an illustrative range than a solid forecast. They do underline that an equity-heavy mix can produce both strong growth and meaningful downside scenarios over time.
Asset classes
- Stocks 90%
- No data 10%
Asset‑class data shows 90% in stocks and 10% in the “no data” bucket, with nothing in bonds or cash-like instruments reflected here. This points to a clearly growth‑oriented structure that leans on equities as the main return engine, with limited ballast from traditionally steadier asset classes. Compared with broad multi‑asset benchmarks, this is a more aggressive equity tilt. In practice, that can mean larger swings in portfolio value during market moves, both up and down. The small unknown slice labeled “no data” is too minor to change the overall picture: this is primarily a stock portfolio whose behavior will be closely tied to equity market cycles rather than fixed income dynamics.
Sectors
- Technology 19%
- Financials 19%
- Consumer Discretionary 13%
- Energy 12%
- Industrials 11%
- Basic Materials 4%
- Health Care 4%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Telecommunications 3%
- Real Estate 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector data reveals a fairly spread-out mix, with technology and financials each around 19%, followed by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials in the low teens. Smaller allocations to materials, health care, staples, telecom, real estate, and utilities make up the rest. This pattern suggests the portfolio is not narrowly focused on one industry, which supports diversification at the sector level. That said, an equity-only portfolio can still move sharply even with sector balance, especially when a big chunk sits in smaller companies. Sector exposures also interact with macro trends; for instance, economically sensitive areas may be more responsive to growth and rate changes. With limited history, any sector “winners” so far could simply reflect short-term rotations.
Regions
- North America 74%
- Europe Developed 9%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 1%
- Latin America 1%
- Australasia 1%
Geographically, about three-quarters of the exposure is in North America, with the remainder spread across developed Europe, Japan, developed Asia, emerging Asia, Latin America, and Australasia in smaller single‑digit slices. This is a clear U.S./North America tilt relative to the global market, but it still incorporates international diversification through the all‑international ETF. That structure aligns reasonably well with many global equity portfolios that overweight the home market while still holding a meaningful overseas slice. The benefit is exposure to both domestic and foreign economic drivers. The flip side is that portfolio behavior is still likely to be heavily influenced by North American market conditions, especially over short periods like the two months observed here.
Market capitalization
- Small-cap 32%
- Micro-cap 28%
- Large-cap 11%
- Mid-cap 11%
- Mega-cap 8%
The size breakdown shows a strong tilt toward smaller companies: about 32% small‑cap and 28% micro‑cap, with the remainder spread across large, mid, and mega caps. This is a notable departure from standard global equity indices, which tend to be dominated by large and mega‑cap names. Smaller companies usually bring higher potential growth but also higher volatility and more company‑specific risk. That mix can lead to sharper moves in both directions, as single news events can matter more. The recent short‑term outperformance could partially reflect a favorable run for these smaller names, but with only a brief history, it’s impossible to say whether this pattern would persist across different market environments.
True holdings
-
-
-
00 SK Hynix Inc 2.72%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
- Roundhill Memory ETF
-
00 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd 2.16%
Part of fund(s):- Roundhill Memory ETF
-
FG First American Funds Inc. - Government Obligations Fund 1.32%
Part of fund(s):- Roundhill Memory ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 0.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
VS ViaSat Inc 0.76%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 0.65%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
28 Kioxia Holdings Corporation 0.61%
Part of fund(s):- Roundhill Memory ETF
-
MA Matson Inc 0.59%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
- Top 10 total 19.59%
Looking through the ETFs’ top 10 holdings, only about 37% of the portfolio is covered, so overlaps are likely understated. Still, some concentrations are visible: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and NVIDIA appear via ETFs and sit alongside direct positions in Nokia and Penguin Solutions. Several of these names share ties to semiconductors or hardware, hinting at a cluster of exposure to certain parts of the tech and communications ecosystem. Because we only see top‑10 ETF holdings, there may be additional overlapping smaller positions beneath the surface. Hidden overlap like this can reduce diversification more than position counts suggest, especially if multiple holdings react similarly to the same industry developments.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a high tilt to value at 78%, while size, quality, yield, and low volatility sit close to neutral levels around 40–52%. Factor exposure is basically a way of describing the “style DNA” of the portfolio, such as cheaper stocks (value) or steadier stocks (low volatility). A value tilt means the holdings, on average, trade at lower prices relative to fundamentals compared with the broad market. Historically, value has gone through long periods of both under‑ and out‑performance versus growth, so this tilt can cause the portfolio to behave differently from broad indices at times. With momentum data unavailable and history very short, there’s limited evidence so far on how these factors might play out in various cycles.
Risk contribution
-
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 60.00% 32.9% -
Roundhill Memory ETF
Weight: 10.00% 30.6% -
Penguin Solutions, Inc.
Weight: 5.00% 13.0% -
Nokia Corp ADR
Weight: 5.00% 9.5% -
Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.0% - Top 5 risk contribution 95.0%
Risk contribution shows that the 60% small cap value ETF drives about one‑third of total risk, while the 10% memory‑themed ETF contributes a similar amount at roughly 31%. Penguin Solutions, despite just a 5% weight, adds about 13% of total risk, and Nokia about 10%. This illustrates how risk contribution can diverge from weight: a smaller but more volatile or less diversified position can dominate the ups and downs, like a loud instrument in an orchestra. The top three holdings together account for about 76% of total risk, pointing to a fairly concentrated risk profile even though there are multiple positions. That means portfolio behavior will be especially sensitive to these few components.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix with hypothetical re‑weightings of the same holdings. Here, the current portfolio sits well below the frontier at its risk level, with a Sharpe ratio of about 7.7 versus a higher 10.1 for the optimal mix and 7.1 for the minimum‑variance choice. The Sharpe ratio, in simple terms, is return per unit of risk above cash. A portfolio below the frontier means there are weights that could have delivered similar or better returns for less risk, using just these same assets. Because these figures are driven by an unusually strong short-term period, both risk and return estimates — and therefore the frontier — are highly unstable right now.
Dividends
- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF 2.50%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- Nokia Corp ADR 0.90%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.18%
The overall dividend yield is about 1.18%, with contributions mainly from the international ETF (2.5%), the small cap value ETF (1.3%), the S&P 500 ETF (1.0%), and Nokia (0.9%). That puts the portfolio in a modest income range relative to many broad equity indices, which often yield around 1–2%. Dividends are the cash payouts companies make from profits and can provide a steady component of total return alongside price changes. In a portfolio like this, the main return engine is still expected capital growth rather than income. With a short performance window, the yield numbers are more of a snapshot of current policies than a guarantee of future payout levels.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF 0.31%
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%
The weighted ongoing cost, or TER, comes out around 0.18% per year, with individual ETF fees ranging from 0.03% for the S&P 500 fund up to 0.31% for the international ETF. This is a low overall cost level compared with many actively managed funds and aligns well with cost‑efficient investing practices. Lower fees mean less performance drag compounding over time, which can have a meaningful impact over many years, even if it looks small annually. Combined with the diversified ETF core, this cost structure is a real positive: the portfolio is not giving up much to fees relative to its return potential. As always, the main uncertainty lies in market behavior, not in ongoing expenses.
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