Concentrated US growth portfolio tilted toward technology mega caps and momentum driven performance
Report created on May 18, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 50.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 40.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00%
This portfolio is very straightforward, holding three US equity ETFs: a broad S&P 500 core at 50%, a heavy 40% allocation to a NASDAQ 100 tracker, and a 10% sleeve focused on S&P 500 momentum stocks. Everything is in stocks, with no bonds or cash assumed. This structure leans clearly toward US large growth companies, especially in tech and related areas, with the S&P fund adding some diversification into other sectors. A simple lineup like this is easy to follow and understand, but it also means the portfolio’s behavior is tightly linked to US stock market cycles rather than being spread across different asset types.
Growth
From late 2020 to mid‑2026, a hypothetical $1,000 in this mix grew to about $2,432. That works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.29%, slightly ahead of the US market benchmark at 16.17% and well ahead of the global benchmark at 13.95%. CAGR is like your “average speed” over the full trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The trade‑off is a fairly deep max drawdown of about −28% during 2021–2023, worse than the US benchmark’s −24.5%. This shows a pattern of higher‑than‑market returns alongside somewhat sharper downturns, which fits a growth‑tilted, tech‑heavy profile.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection looks at many possible future paths by remixing historical return and volatility patterns. It doesn’t try to predict exact numbers; instead it shows a range of plausible outcomes if markets behaved somewhat like the past. Here, the median 15‑year outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,747, with most simulations falling between roughly $1,845 and $4,284. There’s a 75% chance of ending with more than the starting $1,000 based on these runs. The average simulated annual return of 8.11% is lower than the recent historical CAGR, reminding that past strong runs—especially in concentrated growth areas—may not repeat in the same way.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with 0% in bonds, cash, or alternative assets. Stocks historically offer higher long‑term growth potential than lower‑risk assets, but they also swing more in both directions. That all‑equity structure explains the higher risk rating and the relatively deep drawdown seen in the historical data. Compared with a more mixed asset allocation, this setup doesn’t have built‑in shock absorbers like bonds or cash that can cushion big equity sell‑offs. As a result, the portfolio’s ups and downs are driven almost entirely by the equity markets rather than being smoothed out by other asset types.
Sectors
- Technology 46%
- Telecommunications 13%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Financials 6%
- Industrials 6%
- Health Care 6%
- Consumer Staples 6%
- Energy 2%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector‑wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted: about 46% in technology and another 13% in telecommunications, with the rest spread across consumer, financials, industrials, health care, and smaller slices of other areas. That tech‑plus‑communication concentration is significantly higher than broad US or global benchmarks, which tend to have more even sector mixes. Heavier exposure to these areas has been a tailwind in recent years as many of these companies have led market gains. The flip side is that sector‑specific shocks—like changes in interest rates, regulation, or tech sentiment—are likely to have an outsized impact on this portfolio compared with a more evenly spread sector allocation.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, this is almost a pure US play: about 99% North America and only 1% Europe Developed. That means the portfolio’s fortunes are closely tied to the US economy, its corporate earnings, politics, regulation, and the US dollar. Many of the underlying companies are global businesses, but the listing and benchmark exposure are overwhelmingly domestic. Compared with global indices that spread more across regions, this alignment has helped during a period when US markets outpaced many others. The trade‑off is limited diversification across different economic cycles and policy environments outside the US, which may matter if leadership shifts regionally in future decades.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 49%
- Large-cap 36%
- Mid-cap 14%
By market cap, the portfolio leans clearly to the largest companies: roughly 49% mega‑cap, 36% large‑cap, and 14% mid‑cap. Mega‑caps are the biggest, most established firms, often with global brands and deep resources. This tilt can bring some stability relative to small‑cap stocks, which tend to be more volatile and more sensitive to economic shocks. At the same time, high mega‑cap exposure means index‑level moves in a small group of very large companies dominate the portfolio’s behavior. If these giants lead the market, performance benefits; if they lag, there is less exposure to smaller companies that might be doing better at the same time.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.63%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 6.08%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 4.43%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.86%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.72%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 2.45%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.31%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.69%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 40.40%
Looking through the ETFs, there is clear concentration in a handful of large growth names. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (both share classes), Broadcom, Micron, Tesla, and AMD together make up a substantial slice of the portfolio’s look‑through exposure. These companies appear across multiple ETFs, which creates overlapping positions—even though only top‑10 holdings are used, so actual overlap is likely higher. This overlap means the portfolio is more dependent on these few names than the ETF list alone suggests. When these stocks perform strongly, they can significantly boost returns; when they stumble, their combined weight can drive much of the portfolio’s short‑term downside.
Factors
On factors, this portfolio shows mild tilts away from value, size, and yield, with neutral exposures to momentum, quality, and low volatility. Factor exposure is like checking which “traits” the holdings share—such as being cheaper (value), smaller (size), or high‑yielding. Low value and low yield scores line up with a growth‑oriented pattern: companies priced for higher expected growth, often reinvesting profits rather than paying big dividends. A low size score points to larger companies dominating. Neutral momentum and quality suggest the portfolio behaves roughly in line with the broad market on those traits, rather than making an aggressive bet on recent winners or only the highest‑quality firms.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 40.00% 46.8% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 50.00% 43.9% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.4%
Risk contribution shows how much each ETF drives overall volatility, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the NASDAQ 100 ETF is 40% of the portfolio but contributes nearly 47% of the risk, so its ups and downs are louder than its weight alone implies. The S&P 500 ETF is 50% of the allocation but around 44% of the risk, slightly dampening volatility relative to its size. The momentum ETF roughly matches its 10% weight with about 9% of risk. Overall, this pattern highlights that the growth‑heavy NASDAQ slice is the main risk engine, while the broad S&P 500 core provides a modest stabilizing effect.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis suggests the current mix sits below the best trade‑off possible using these same three ETFs. The portfolio’s Sharpe ratio—a measure of return per unit of risk, adjusted for a 4% risk‑free rate—is 0.74, while the maximum‑Sharpe mix reaches 1.03 and the minimum‑variance mix is 0.92. Being about 2.5 percentage points below the frontier at the current risk level means the same holdings could, in theory, be reweighted to produce higher expected return for similar risk, or lower risk for similar return. Even so, the portfolio delivers strong absolute returns; the observation is mainly about efficiency rather than direction.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.73%
The overall dividend yield of about 0.73% is quite low, especially compared with broader equity markets that often yield more. That’s consistent with the growth and tech tilt: many of the underlying companies prefer reinvesting earnings into expansion, buybacks, or R&D instead of paying larger dividends. For total return, dividends are a smaller part of the story here; price movements and earnings growth are the main drivers of long‑term outcomes. For someone tracking income specifically, this portfolio would show relatively modest cash distributions over time, with the expectation that most of the return shows up in changes in share prices instead.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.09%
The total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio averages around 0.09% per year, which is impressively low. Costs like TER are ongoing management fees that come out before you see returns, so lower numbers leave more of the market’s gains in your pocket over time. The largest holding—the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF—has a particularly low 0.03% cost, helping drag the average down even with slightly higher fees on the NASDAQ 100 and momentum funds. Over many years, the difference between 0.09% and more expensive alternatives can compound into a noticeable gap, making low costs a real structural strength of this setup.
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