A growth tilted balanced portfolio with strong US focus and some unnecessary internal overlap

Report created on Nov 10, 2024

Risk profile Info

4/7
Balanced
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

3/5
Moderately Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

The portfolio is spread across 17 positions, almost all at roughly equal weights, which keeps any single holding from dominating. It leans heavily on broad equity ETFs plus a few thematic funds, two individual stocks, and one multi‑asset ETF. This structure helps avoid extreme concentration risk, but there’s clear overlap between several broad US funds that all own many of the same companies. Overlap matters because it can create a hidden tilt toward the same names while appearing diversified. Tightening the line‑up to fewer core funds that already provide wide coverage could keep the same overall balance while making the portfolio easier to manage and monitor over time.

Growth Info

Historically, the portfolio shows an impressive Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about 22%, meaning €10,000 growing roughly to €24,000 in five years if that rate persisted. The max drawdown of about -19% suggests that the worst peak‑to‑trough drop so far has been painful but not extreme for an equity‑heavy mix. Only 23 days made up 90% of returns, highlighting how a few strong days can drive long‑term results. That’s why staying invested through volatility is so important. Still, past returns happened in a specific market environment and can’t be safely projected forward in a straight line.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo analysis used 1,000 simulations to model many possible futures by reshuffling past return and volatility patterns. In plain terms, it’s like running 1,000 “what if” timelines for the same portfolio. The median outcome (around 1,396% total growth) looks extremely optimistic, and even the bottom 5% case (around 209%) is strong. This underlines the growth tilt, but such models rely heavily on historical behavior and may overstate future gains if markets cool down. Treat these numbers as a range‑of‑outcomes stress test rather than a promise, and mentally prepare for scenarios well below the median path.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    87%
  • Bonds
    7%
  • Other
    6%

The asset mix is roughly 87% stocks, 7% bonds, and 6% “other” (mainly gold and multi‑asset exposure), with no cash component. For a “balanced” risk profile, this is clearly on the growthier side, more like an aggressive balanced or mild growth portfolio. High equity weight boosts long‑term return potential but also increases the size and frequency of drawdowns. The small bond sleeve and gold allocation offer some cushion but won’t fully offset sharp equity sell‑offs. Anyone wanting smoother swings might gradually increase high‑quality bonds or broader defensive assets while ensuring they still fit their preferred time horizon.

Sectors Info

  • Technology
    24%
  • Industrials
    16%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    12%
  • Financials
    12%
  • Health Care
    5%
  • Telecommunications
    5%
  • Consumer Staples
    4%
  • Utilities
    3%
  • Real Estate
    2%
  • Energy
    2%
  • Basic Materials
    2%

Sector exposure is led by technology (24%), industrials (16%), consumer cyclicals and financials (12% each), with smaller slices in healthcare, communications, defensive, utilities, real estate, energy, and materials. This is reasonably diversified and broadly in line with many global benchmarks, which is a good sign. The tech overweight, plus dedicated semiconductor and blockchain exposure, pushes the portfolio toward higher growth and higher volatility, especially sensitive to interest‑rate and risk‑sentiment shifts. If that tilt is intentional, it can be kept, but it’s worth regularly checking that more defensive areas don’t drift too low as market cycles change.

Regions Info

  • North America
    64%
  • Europe Developed
    17%
  • Asia Developed
    3%
  • Japan
    2%
  • Asia Emerging
    1%
  • Latin America
    1%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, about 64% sits in North America, 17% in developed Europe, and smaller allocations across Asia, Japan, emerging markets, and others. This US‑heavy stance aligns with many global benchmarks, since US markets are large and have led performance in recent years. This alignment is positive because it ensures broad exposure to many leading companies. However, it also means results are strongly tied to US economic and policy conditions. Some investors like this; others prefer a slightly higher share in non‑US regions to diversify governance, currency, and growth drivers. Rebalancing over time can keep the tilt intentional rather than accidental.

Market capitalization Info

  • Large-cap
    36%
  • Mega-cap
    20%
  • Mid-cap
    15%
  • Small-cap
    11%
  • Micro-cap
    5%

By company size, the portfolio holds around 56% in mega and big caps, 15% in mid caps, 11% in small caps, and 5% in micro caps. That’s a healthy spread across the capitalization spectrum, adding diversification and access to different growth profiles. The small and micro‑cap sleeve, via targeted ETFs, helps capture potential higher long‑term growth but also adds extra volatility and liquidity risk. The strong large‑cap core is reassuring and aligns well with global practice. Keeping the bulk in large companies while periodically checking that small‑cap exposure does not become too dominant seems sensible for risk control.

Redundant positions Info

  • Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF
    Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF Acc
    High correlation
  • Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc
    iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc)
    High correlation
  • SPDR® MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR
    SPDR® Russell 2000 US Small Cap UCITS ETF EUR
    High correlation

Several holdings are highly correlated: the two NASDAQ‑100 ETFs behave almost identically, as do the two S&P 500 funds and the pair of US small‑cap funds. Correlation describes how often assets move together; a value near 1 means they usually rise and fall in tandem. When multiple funds are extremely similar, they add complexity without truly boosting diversification. The portfolio would likely behave almost the same with fewer overlapping funds. Streamlining these clusters into a single core choice in each area can reduce clutter, keep the exposures intentional, and potentially lower operational risk without sacrificing the overall risk‑return profile.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

Efficient Frontier analysis suggests this mix isn’t yet “efficient,” meaning that with the same risk level, a different blend of the current building blocks could deliver a higher expected return. Efficient Frontier is a tool that finds the best possible risk‑return combinations from a given set of assets based on historical behavior. It’s not about forecasting the future perfectly but about making sure no return is being left on the table for the level of volatility taken. Cleaning up overlapping positions first, then re‑weighting existing funds, could tighten the portfolio’s risk‑return trade‑off without changing its broad character.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Invesco CoinShares Global Blockchain UCITS ETF Acc 0.65%
  • Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF Acc 0.35%
  • Invesco EQQQ NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF 0.35%
  • BlackRock ESG Multi-Asset Growth Portfolio UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) 0.25%
  • SPDR® S&P 500 Low Volatility UCITS ETF 0.35%
  • SPDR® S&P US Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF Dis EUR 0.40%
  • iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) 0.12%
  • Vanguard USD Treasury Bond UCITS ETF USD Accumulation EUR 0.05%
  • Vanguard FTSE All-World High Dividend Yield UCITS ETF USD Accumulation 0.29%
  • Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS Acc 0.07%
  • VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF 0.35%
  • SPDR® Russell 2000 US Small Cap UCITS ETF EUR 0.30%
  • SPDR® MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF USD Acc EUR 0.30%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.23%

Total TER around 0.23% is impressively low for a portfolio with several specialized and thematic funds. Low costs matter because they’re a guaranteed drag on returns every year, unlike market moves, which are uncertain. You’ve anchored the core exposure in very cheap index funds, which is a strong foundation. The few higher‑fee thematic ETFs are acceptable in small weights, but adding more of them over time could push costs up. Periodically comparing each holding’s fee to a simpler alternative and trimming pricier funds that don’t add clear extra value can help protect long‑term performance.

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