Concentrated US stock portfolio with strong growth tilt and efficient risk return balance
Report created on Apr 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VU Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
VUG - US9229087369 40.82% -
SC Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
SCHD - US8085247976 27.21% -
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 27.21% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 4.76%
This portfolio is made up of four low-cost US stock ETFs, with no bonds or alternatives. The largest piece is a broad US growth index, backed up by almost equal slices of an S&P 500 tracker and a US dividend fund, plus a small allocation to a total US market ETF. So, it’s essentially a “different flavors of US stocks” mix rather than a multi-asset setup. That matters because all holdings are pulling in broadly the same direction when US equities move. The structure keeps things simple and easy to understand, but it also means risk and return are tightly linked to the US stock market’s ups and downs.
Growth
Over the last decade, $1,000 in this portfolio grew to about $4,256, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.65%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This return slightly beat the US market benchmark and clearly outpaced the global market index. The worst drop, or max drawdown, was about -32.7% during early 2020, which was similar to the benchmarks. That shows the portfolio has taken on typical equity-level shocks but has been rewarded with strong growth historically. As always, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but it does show how the mix has behaved in real stress.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection models many possible futures based on past volatility and returns, then shows a range of outcomes. Here, $1,000 has a median simulated value of about $2,728 after 15 years, with a wide “likely” band from roughly $1,743 to $4,068. Think of it as rolling the dice 1,000 times with probabilities guided by history. The overall average simulated return is about 7.87% per year, and about 73% of paths end positive. This highlights that outcomes can vary a lot even with the same starting portfolio. Simulations are useful for framing uncertainty, but they’re still based on historical patterns that may not fully repeat.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
The portfolio is 100% in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like ETFs, or alternative assets. Asset classes are broad buckets like stocks, bonds, and real estate that respond differently to economic changes. A pure equity allocation typically offers higher long-run growth potential, but also larger swings in value, especially during market downturns. Compared to many broad “balanced” benchmarks that mix stocks and bonds, this structure leans toward growth and volatility rather than stability. That’s consistent with its growth-oriented risk score, but it also means that short-term declines are absorbed fully by the equity side, without bond holdings to soften the ride.
Sectors
- Technology 36%
- Telecommunications 12%
- Health Care 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Financials 8%
- Consumer Staples 8%
- Industrials 7%
- Energy 6%
- Real Estate 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio leans heavily toward technology and related areas, with tech around 36% and meaningful weight in telecommunications, health care, and consumer-focused segments. More defensive sectors like utilities and real estate sit at only about 1% each, so they don’t provide much cushion. This type of spread is broadly in line with major US indices, which have become tech-dominated as large tech firms have grown. Tech-heavy portfolios can benefit when innovation and growth stocks are in favor but can feel sharper hits when interest rates rise or when sentiment turns against high-growth names. The positive side is that sector exposure is recognizably benchmark-like rather than extreme.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, the portfolio is 100% North America, effectively all US stocks. Geography matters because companies in different regions face different economic cycles, currencies, and policy environments. Major global benchmarks typically spread across the US, Europe, Asia, and emerging markets, so this portfolio is more concentrated than a world index. The full US focus has been rewarded over the last decade as US equities outperformed many other regions, helping the strong historical returns. But it also means results are tightly linked to how the US economy and markets do relative to the rest of the world, with little diversification if other regions outperform in the future.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 43%
- Large-cap 40%
- Mid-cap 15%
- Small-cap 1%
By market capitalization, the portfolio is dominated by mega- and large-cap companies, together over 80%, with limited mid- and almost no small-cap exposure. Market cap is simply a company’s total value on the stock market, and bigger firms tend to be more established and diversified. This pattern is similar to broad US indices that are weighted by company size. Large and mega caps usually bring more liquidity and somewhat more stable business models than smaller names, though they may not capture every niche growth story. The modest mid- and small-cap weights mean the portfolio behaves more like the core US market than a high-risk small-cap tilt, which helps keep its factor profile fairly balanced.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.80%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 7.12%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 5.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.02%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.62%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.54%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.00%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 1.53%
Part of fund(s):- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
- Top 10 total 37.49%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings shows notable concentration in a handful of giant US companies. NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft alone add up to over 20% of the look-through exposure covered, with Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta also significant. These same names appear in multiple ETFs, creating overlap: it feels like four funds, but the underlying engines are similar. Because only top-10 ETF holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely a bit understated. Hidden concentration like this is common in US index-based portfolios but worth being aware of. When these large firms do well, they can strongly lift returns; when they struggle, their influence can be larger than the number of ETFs suggests.
Factors
Factor exposure here is essentially market-like across the board: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit in the neutral band. Factors are characteristics like “cheap vs. expensive” or “stable vs. volatile” that academic research links to return patterns. A neutral score means the portfolio behaves a lot like a broad market index rather than making strong bets on any single style. That’s consistent with holding major index ETFs as core positions. The benefit is that performance isn’t heavily dependent on any one style cycle, such as value beating growth or vice versa. Instead, returns tend to reflect the general equity market environment, especially the US large-cap space.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 40.82% 46.5% -
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 27.21% 26.9% -
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
Weight: 27.21% 21.9% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 4.76% 4.8%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives overall ups and downs, which can differ from its weight. Here, the Vanguard Growth ETF is 40.8% of the portfolio but contributes about 46.5% of total risk, meaning it’s slightly more volatile and influential than its size alone suggests. The S&P 500 and dividend ETFs contribute a bit less risk than their weights, reflecting their broader and somewhat steadier profiles. The top three funds account for over 95% of total risk, so changes in their prices largely determine day-to-day portfolio movement. This pattern is normal for a concentrated set of broad equity funds, though it does highlight that tweaks to the largest holding would have the biggest impact on overall behavior.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard S&P 500 ETFVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF SharesVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
The ETFs in this portfolio are highly correlated with each other: the S&P 500, total US market, and growth funds move almost identically, and even the dividend ETF shares much of the same underlying universe. Correlation measures how often and how strongly assets move together. When correlation is very high, owning multiple funds doesn’t reduce risk as much as their number suggests, because they tend to rise and fall in sync. In normal markets, this correlation makes the portfolio easy to understand as a single US equity bet. During sharp selloffs, though, diversification benefits between these equity sleeves may be limited, and the whole portfolio can move down at roughly the same time.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk vs. return analysis shows the current portfolio sitting on or very near the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is the curve of the best possible return for each level of risk using these same holdings in different mixes. The current Sharpe ratio of 0.67, which measures return per unit of risk above cash, is slightly below the optimal mix’s 0.84 but still decent. Importantly, the analysis suggests this allocation is already broadly efficient for its chosen risk level, meaning there isn’t a glaring imbalance among these four ETFs. Small reweighting differences could theoretically improve risk-adjusted returns, but the portfolio isn’t far off the line that marks the best possible trade-offs.
Dividends
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 3.40%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.40%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.44%
The blended dividend yield is about 1.44%, with the Schwab US Dividend ETF contributing a much higher yield around 3.4%, while the growth-focused fund yields only 0.4%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, which can be an important part of total return over long periods. Here, the portfolio clearly prioritizes price appreciation over income, with dividends as a modest side benefit. The dedicated dividend sleeve does, however, create a distinct income engine within the otherwise growth-oriented mix. Historically, reinvested dividends can significantly boost growth, so even a relatively low yield contributes to compounding when distributions are plowed back into the portfolio.
Ongoing product costs
- Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF 0.06%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares 0.04%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.04%
Costs are impressively low, with a total expense ratio around 0.04% across the ETFs. The total expense ratio (TER) is the annual percentage fee charged by funds, quietly deducted from returns. For context, 0.04% is well below many actively managed funds and in line with the cheapest index products available. Over long horizons, small differences in cost compound into meaningful gaps in ending wealth, so starting from a low-cost base is a strong structural advantage. This fee level means that most of the underlying market return is flowing through to the portfolio rather than being lost to management charges, which supports better long-term performance potential.
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