Highly concentrated semiconductor growth portfolio with strong recent gains and narrow diversification
Report created on May 6, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 58.00% -
SC Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
SCHG - US8085243009 21.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 8.96% -
AI VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
AIS 8.55% -
PP Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
PPA - US46137V1008 2.00% -
SG SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
SGRT 0.76% -
AV Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF
AVNM - US0250721745 0.73%
This portfolio is almost entirely built from growth-focused equity ETFs, with about three-fifths in a single semiconductor fund and most of the rest in US large-cap growth and momentum strategies. That creates a strongly tilted structure rather than a broad mix. Composition matters because it shapes how the portfolio behaves when specific themes, like chips or artificial intelligence, move sharply up or down. Here the structure points clearly toward a focused growth and innovation bet instead of a “own everything” approach. With only around eight months of history, it’s especially important to see this not as a proven long-term pattern but as an early snapshot of a concentrated, theme-driven setup.
Growth
Over the short 8‑month window, $1,000 grew to about $1,584, implying a 93.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). CAGR is like the average speed of a road trip: it smooths the ride to one yearly number. The portfolio also saw a maximum drawdown of about -13.8%, meaning the largest peak‑to‑trough drop so far. That’s a bit steeper than the US and global market benchmarks, which also rose strongly but with smaller pullbacks. This combination of much higher return and somewhat higher drawdown fits a high‑octane growth profile, but the window is very short; such numbers can change dramatically once they’re tested over a full market cycle.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses the recent return and volatility pattern to simulate many possible 15‑year paths for a $1,000 investment. Think of it as running the same coin toss thousands of times using the last eight months as a guide to how often heads or tails showed up. The median outcome of about $2,640 and an overall average of 7.8% per year sit well below the recent blistering performance, reflecting the wide swings seen in the data. Because the input history is so limited and unusually strong, these simulated ranges are rough sketches, not firm forecasts, and they should be read as “possible scenarios” rather than expectations.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of the portfolio sits in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash-like assets, or alternatives. Asset classes are the broad building blocks of a portfolio, and mixing them can help smooth the ride because they often react differently to economic news. A 100% equity mix, especially with a growth and theme tilt, tends to move more with the ups and downs of corporate earnings and market sentiment. That can amplify both gains and declines. Over an eight‑month sample that happened to be very favorable, this looks rewarding, but that same structure would also fully expose the portfolio to any sharp equity downturns that have not yet appeared in the short history.
Sectors
- Technology 80%
- Industrials 6%
- Telecommunications 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Health Care 2%
- Financials 2%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Energy 1%
Roughly 80% of the portfolio’s sector exposure is in technology, with smaller slices across industrials, telecoms, consumer names, health care, and other areas. Sector weightings matter because different parts of the economy shine or struggle at different times. A tech‑heavy mix often benefits when innovation themes and growth expectations are strong, but it can be more sensitive to interest rate moves or shifts in sentiment about future earnings. Compared with broadly diversified benchmarks, this is a very concentrated sector stance. The recent strong performance is consistent with a favorable period for these themes, but the limited history doesn’t show how it might behave through a less friendly tech environment.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Asia Developed 9%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Asia Emerging 1%
Geographically, about 86% of exposure is in North America, with the rest spread mainly across developed Asia and Europe and a small slice in emerging Asia. Geography influences currency risk, political environments, and economic drivers. Many global benchmarks are also US‑tilted, but this portfolio leans even harder into that region, with relatively modest representation from the rest of the world. That alignment with North America has worked well in the recent sample, especially for technology and semiconductor names tied to that market. However, with only eight months of data, there’s limited evidence of how this regional balance might respond if leadership shifted toward other global markets or currencies.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 50%
- Large-cap 39%
- Mid-cap 8%
- Small-cap 2%
Around half of the portfolio sits in mega-cap companies, about 39% in large caps, and a much smaller portion in mid- and small-cap names. Market capitalization, or “market cap,” is simply the total value of a company’s shares. Larger firms often have more established businesses and deeper trading markets, which can sometimes mean more stability than very small companies, though not always for fast-moving growth sectors. This large‑ and mega‑cap bias aligns reasonably with broad equity benchmarks and may help avoid the most extreme swings typical of tiny, speculative names. Still, within this cap mix, the sector and theme choices remain the bigger drivers of behavior than company size alone.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 13.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 6.41%
Part of fund(s):- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF
- Avantis® Emerging Markets Equity ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 6.33%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
IN Intel Corporation 4.56%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 4.26%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 4.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 2.91%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AD Analog Devices Inc 2.56%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
QC Qualcomm Incorporated 2.45%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
KL KLA Corporation 2.42%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 49.06%
Looking through the ETFs, a significant portion of the portfolio clusters in a handful of semiconductor giants: NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, Intel, AMD, Micron, and others each represent meaningful combined stakes. Look‑through helps reveal when different funds secretly own the same names, creating more concentration than the ETF count suggests. Here, that overlap shows a strong indirect bet on the leading chip ecosystem. Because coverage only includes top‑10 ETF holdings, actual overlap may be even higher. This kind of hidden concentration means that news affecting a few key chip companies could move the overall portfolio noticeably, even though the exposure appears diversified across multiple ETFs.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure data shows a very low tilt to Size and a high tilt to Momentum. Factors are like the underlying “personality traits” of stocks, such as being cheaper (value), trending (momentum), or smaller (size). A very low Size score indicates a strong lean away from smaller companies and toward bigger ones. High Momentum means the portfolio is tilted toward stocks that have done well recently. Historically, momentum can perform strongly in persistent trends but may suffer during sharp reversals. With only eight months of data, the exact strength of these tilts is hard to pin down long term, but the current snapshot points clearly toward large, recently strong performers.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 58.00% 69.7% -
Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF
Weight: 21.00% 11.6% -
VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF
Weight: 8.55% 11.3% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 8.96% 5.4% -
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
Weight: 2.00% 0.9% - Top 5 risk contribution 98.8%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Here, the semiconductor ETF is 58% of the weight but contributes nearly 70% of total risk, while the AI-focused ETF plus that semiconductor position together with the large‑cap growth fund account for over 90% of risk. That’s like having a small band where one loud instrument dominates the sound. This tells us that, in practice, a few growth and semiconductor exposures largely determine daily volatility. The recent period, while strong, has not yet included a full stress test of how such concentrated risk would behave in a deep or prolonged downturn.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis compares the current mix to the best possible combinations of these same ETFs. The Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk above a risk‑free rate, is 2.4 for the current portfolio versus 3.02 for the “optimal” mix and 1.54 for the lowest‑risk mix. The current point sits about 9.5 percentage points below the efficient frontier at its risk level, meaning the same set of holdings could have delivered better risk‑adjusted returns with different weights over this short period. Because the inputs come from only eight months of unusually strong performance, these optimization results should be treated as illustrative rather than as a stable long‑term guide.
Dividends
- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF 2.60%
- Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF 0.40%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- SMART Earnings Growth 30 ETF 0.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.29%
The portfolio’s total dividend yield is around 0.29%, with the highest-yielding ETF at 2.6% and several others near or below 0.7%. Dividend yield is the annual cash payout as a percentage of price, like an interest rate from stocks. Here, the low overall yield fits a growth and momentum‑oriented approach, where more of the return is expected from price movement than from regular income. In the recent eight‑month window, capital gains have completely dominated returns, so dividends have played a minor role. Over time, even modest dividends can contribute, but in this setup they are clearly a secondary feature rather than a defining characteristic.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis All International Markets Equity ETF 0.31%
- Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF 0.58%
- Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF 0.04%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.24%
The portfolio’s weighted average total expense ratio (TER) is about 0.24%, with individual funds ranging from 0.04% to 0.58%. TER is the annual fee charged by each ETF, expressed as a percentage of invested assets. Costs matter because they subtract from returns every year and compound over time. Here, the overall fee level is moderate for a set of thematic and factor‑based strategies and compares favorably to many specialized funds that charge more. For a concentrated, growth‑tilted portfolio, keeping costs in this range is a plus, as it lets more of any potential return — whether strong or weak — flow through to the investor over the long run.
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