Momentum junkie portfolio rides the hot hand and pretends diversification is optional
Report created on May 7, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
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SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 100.00%
This isn’t really a “portfolio”; it’s a personality trait. One ETF, 100% in a momentum strategy, all-in on one idea with no backup plan. Diversification score 2/5 feels generous — this is basically a one-trick pony doing laps around the S&P 500. Structurally, everything that happens here is dictated by one rules-based product tracking one narrow slice of the US market. That’s efficient in a “hope this works forever” kind of way, but fragile if momentum flips or the index has a bad cycle. The structure says: no safety nets, no side quests, just one turbocharged engine bolted to a skateboard.
Growth
Historically, the skateboard has been strapped to a rocket. A $1,000 stake growing to $5,983 with a 22.28% CAGR easily dusts both the US market and global market. CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is basically your average speed on a long road trip, and this thing’s been flooring it. The max drawdown of about -31% during COVID was slightly milder than the benchmarks, but let’s not pretend that felt gentle. Also, 90% of returns came from just 42 days — so most of the magic happened in a tiny handful of sessions. Miss those, and the story suddenly looks a lot less heroic. Past data is helpful, not a time machine.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection politely reminds that yesterday’s rocket ship can still stall. Monte Carlo just runs thousands of “what if” scenarios based on past volatility — like simulating 1,000 alternate timelines for this same strategy. Median outcome of $2,780 after 15 years sounds fine, but the range from about $925 to $7,829 is basically “anything from ‘meh’ to ‘I’m a genius.’” The average simulated annual return around 8.15% is much tamer than the backward-looking 22%. Translation: the model doesn’t believe the party continues at the same intensity. Simulations aren’t prophecies; they’re just slightly nerdier guesswork that bakes in how wild the ride has been so far.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class “diversification” here is simple: 100% stocks, 0% everything else. It’s like building a diet entirely out of espresso shots — high energy, no buffer. Equities are the growth engine, but they’re also where the sharpest drops live when markets panic. Having only one asset class means every wobble in stocks lands directly in the portfolio with zero cushioning from bonds, cash, or anything remotely defensive. That aligns neatly with the “Growth” label and the 5/7 risk score, but it also means the risk dial basically has one setting: “hope volatility behaves.” There’s no internal ballast when things get ugly; it either rips higher or eats the full punch.
Sectors
- Technology 49%
- Industrials 14%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Health Care 7%
- Financials 6%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Energy 4%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure says “tech and friends or bust.” Roughly half the portfolio in Technology is a full-on tech addiction, with Industrials and Telecom tagging along as supporting characters. Health care, financials, staples, energy, and the rest are just background noise. In practice, this is a momentum strategy that currently equates momentum with chips, platforms, and digital infrastructure — which works brilliantly when those themes are in fashion and brutally when they’re not. Compared to broad indexes that spread the love more evenly, this looks like a highlight reel of whatever’s hot right now. Great when the music plays; awkward when the DJ switches genres and everyone’s still dressed for the last party.
Regions
- North America 100%
Geographically, this portfolio has never stepped outside North America. It might as well be investing with a passport that only works in one country. A 100% US allocation means everything — politics, regulation, currency, corporate cycle — is tied to one economy. That’s fine while the US remains the market darling, but it ignores the large chunk of global market cap and growth happening elsewhere. It’s less “global investing” and more “we’ll just assume the US keeps being the main character forever.” When foreign markets have their own leadership cycles, this setup just shrugs and stays home, for better or worse.
Market capitalization
- Large-cap 49%
- Mega-cap 40%
- Mid-cap 10%
On size, this thing is unapologetically addicted to the corporate giants: about 40% mega-cap, 49% large-cap, and a tiny 10% in mid-caps. That’s the stock-market equivalent of only trusting the biggest brands at the supermarket and ignoring the smaller shelves. Big companies tend to move more with the broad index, so this portfolio lives and dies with the behemoths dominating headlines. If small caps ever stage one of their historic catch-up sprints, this allocation is positioned mainly to watch, not participate. The upside: less exposure to really fragile tiny names; the downside: most of the “hidden gems” size premium lives somewhere else.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.99%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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AV Broadcom Inc 7.96%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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MU Micron Technology Inc 6.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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GO Alphabet Inc Class A 5.47%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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JN Johnson & Johnson 4.42%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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GO Alphabet Inc Class C 4.35%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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XO Exxon Mobil Corp 3.32%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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LR Lam Research Corp 3.22%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.20%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
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CA Caterpillar Inc 2.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 50.33%
The look-through holdings read like a who’s-who of momentum royalty: NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, Alphabet (twice), Johnson & Johnson, Exxon, AMD, Caterpillar, Lam Research. That’s a pretty concentrated power roster already making up about half of the ETF’s exposure from just the top 10. Since overlap is only based on ETF top 10s, the hidden concentration is almost certainly worse under the hood. Effectively, this is a portfolio that claims to own “a strategy” but in practice leans hard on a handful of chipmakers and mega platforms. If a couple of those stumble, the “diversified ETF” label suddenly looks a lot more like “index-shaped stock picking.”
Factors
Factor exposure screams one thing: momentum, and lots of it. Momentum at 75% is a clear tilt — this portfolio loves recent winners and doesn’t hide it. Factor investing is basically checking the hidden flavor profile: value, size, momentum, etc. Here, size is low (34%), meaning a tilt toward larger names; value and quality sit near neutral, yield is low, and low-volatility is roughly market-like. So this isn’t a cheap, steady, income-generating machine; it’s a high-flyer popularity contest among big, fast-moving winners. Leaning so hard into momentum while skipping yield and not emphasizing quality is like driving fast on a dry road — fun, until the weather changes and traction suddenly matters.
Risk contribution
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Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 100.00% 100.0%
Risk contribution is hilariously simple because the portfolio is hilariously simple: one ETF with 100% weight contributes 100% of the risk. Risk contribution measures which positions are actually shaking the portfolio, and here the answer is “all of it, all the time, from one source.” There’s no stealth culprit, no hidden small position causing chaos — the entire thing is just one big concentrated bet. When that ETF zigs, the portfolio zigs; when it crashes, everything goes down with it. Redundantly obvious, sure, but it also highlights how exposed everything is to the specific behavior and quirks of this single momentum index.
Dividends
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.70%
Dividend yield at 0.70% barely qualifies as pocket change. This is not an income story; it’s a capital gains roller coaster with a tiny snack bar attached. Yield as a factor is low, which fits: momentum portfolios usually chase price trends, not generous payouts. For someone expecting dividend checks to soften the blow during rough markets, this setup provides about as much comfort as a thin paper towel in a rainstorm. The portfolio’s return engine is almost entirely price movement, not cash distributions. So when prices stall or reverse, there isn’t much of a dividend cushion to make holding through the pain feel any better.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
Costs are the one area where this portfolio doesn’t act wild. A 0.13% TER is very reasonable for a specialized strategy. That’s basically a modest cover charge for access to a rules-based “chase the winners” club. Still, even low fees compound; every 0.1% skimmed off every year is a permanent tiny haircut on returns. In this case, at least the fee matches the promise: you’re paying for a focused momentum tilt, not an overpriced closet index fund. Think of it as the one part of this whole setup where someone actually bothered to be moderately sensible. Don’t worry — the rest of the portfolio more than compensates on the excitement front.
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