This portfolio has a strong emphasis on equities, distributed across both U.S. and international markets, with a significant allocation in the SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500 ETF and various Avantis® ETFs. The choice of ETFs suggests a strategy that leans towards growth, with a particular focus on value investing through small-cap allocations. The diversification across major and emerging markets, alongside a balance between large-cap and small-cap stocks, indicates a well-thought-out approach to achieving growth while attempting to manage risk through geographical and market capitalization diversification.
Historically, this portfolio has demonstrated a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.23%, despite experiencing a maximum drawdown of -36.34%. This performance is indicative of a growth-oriented strategy that, while effective over the long term, may exhibit significant volatility in the short term. The days contributing to 90% of returns being concentrated in a limited number of trading days highlights the portfolio's sensitivity to market movements and the importance of staying invested through market cycles.
Monte Carlo simulations, with 1,000 iterations, suggest a wide range of potential outcomes, from a 5th percentile growth of 49.3% to a 67th percentile growth of 749.1%. This variance underscores the inherent uncertainty in projecting stock market performance, particularly for growth-oriented portfolios. While the simulations are optimistic, with 983 out of 1,000 showing positive returns, it's crucial to remember that these projections are based on historical data and cannot guarantee future performance.
The portfolio's allocation is exclusively in stocks, which aligns with a high-growth, high-risk investment strategy. This singular focus on equities means the portfolio may lack the risk-buffering benefits of asset class diversification, such as bonds or real estate, particularly in volatile or bear markets. While this allocation can offer significant growth opportunities, it also exposes the investor to higher market risk.
The sectoral allocation with a heavy emphasis on technology and financial services, followed by consumer cyclicals and industrials, is reflective of a growth-oriented investment philosophy. However, this concentration can lead to increased volatility, especially in market downturns affecting these sectors disproportionately. Diversifying across more defensive sectors might provide a buffer in times of market stress.
The geographic distribution, with a dominant 63% in North America and significant exposures to developed Europe and Japan, suggests a strategy that balances the stability of developed markets with the growth potential of select international equities. However, the negligible exposure to emerging markets could mean missing out on potential high-growth opportunities in those regions.
The market capitalization exposure, with a mix of mega, big, medium, small, and micro-caps, reflects a deliberate strategy to capture growth across the market spectrum. This diversification can help mitigate risk, as different market segments may react differently to economic and market changes. However, the allocation to smaller caps, while potentially boosting growth, also increases the portfolio's volatility.
The high correlation between the Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF and the Avantis® International Equity ETF indicates overlapping investments that may not contribute to diversification. Reducing such overlap could enhance the portfolio's efficiency by minimizing redundancy and potentially reducing volatility without sacrificing expected returns.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
To optimize the portfolio, considering the Efficient Frontier, the focus should be on addressing the high correlation between certain assets to improve diversification benefits. This means potentially reallocating from overlapping assets to those that offer similar growth prospects but with lower correlation, thereby enhancing the risk-return profile without necessarily increasing the portfolio's overall risk.
The portfolio's dividend yield strategy, with a total yield of 1.88%, contributes to its total returns, offering a blend of income and growth. The varying yields across ETFs reflect a strategic choice to balance income generation with capital appreciation, a typical characteristic of growth-focused portfolios that also seek to capture some income through dividends.
The portfolio's overall expense ratio of 0.14% is impressively low, especially considering the international exposure and the focus on small-cap value stocks, which often come with higher management fees. This cost efficiency is crucial for long-term growth, as lower costs directly translate to higher net returns for the investor.
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