The portfolio is heavily weighted towards U.S. large-cap growth stocks, with a significant portion allocated to dividend-yielding ETFs. This composition suggests a strategy that seeks to balance growth through large-cap equities with income through dividends. The diversification is moderate, leaning heavily on the U.S. market and technology sector, which could expose the portfolio to sector-specific volatility. Comparatively, the allocation across asset classes and sectors follows a common growth-oriented approach but lacks significant international exposure.
Historically, this portfolio has shown impressive performance, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.93%. This high return rate, however, comes with its risks, as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -19.27%. Such volatility is typical for growth-focused portfolios, especially those heavily invested in technology and large-cap stocks. While past performance is encouraging, it's essential to remember that it doesn't guarantee future results, and the high reliance on a few sectors could amplify risks during downturns.
Monte Carlo simulations provide a range of potential future outcomes based on historical data. With 998 out of 1,000 simulations showing positive returns, the projections seem optimistic. However, the wide range between the 5th percentile and the 67th percentile (188.4% to 1,313.4%) highlights potential volatility. While these simulations can be helpful, they are based on past market behavior, which may not predict future trends accurately, especially in a rapidly changing economic landscape.
Allocating 89% to stocks, the portfolio is positioned for growth, consistent with its risk profile. The bond allocation (6%) provides a modest buffer against stock market volatility, while the minimal cash and other holdings suggest a full commitment to market participation. This asset mix is appropriate for a growth strategy but may benefit from increased diversification into alternative asset classes or more bonds to reduce volatility.
The sector allocation is heavily skewed towards technology, which is common in growth-oriented portfolios but increases susceptibility to tech sector downturns. Financial services and communication services also have significant allocations, diversifying the portfolio within the U.S. market. However, the underrepresentation of sectors like real estate and utilities, which can offer stability during market fluctuations, is notable.
With 96% of assets in North America, the portfolio's geographic exposure is highly concentrated. This focus on the U.S. market has likely contributed to its strong performance, given the market's historical resilience and growth. However, this concentration also exposes the portfolio to regional economic and political risks. Expanding into developed European or Asian markets could provide beneficial diversification.
The portfolio's emphasis on mega and big-cap stocks aligns with its growth and stability objectives, as these companies often have more resources to weather economic downturns. However, the medium, small, and micro-cap allocations, though smaller, are crucial for diversification and potential high-growth opportunities. Balancing these allocations can optimize risk and return.
The high correlation between the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF and the Amplify ETF Trust indicates overlapping holdings, which can limit diversification benefits. In growth-focused portfolios, it's essential to ensure that each asset contributes to diversification, reducing risk without significantly compromising returns. Reevaluating these positions to minimize overlap could enhance the portfolio's risk profile.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The portfolio's current allocation suggests room for optimization, particularly in reducing correlated assets and enhancing geographic and sector diversification. Using the Efficient Frontier concept, reallocating assets to achieve a more efficient risk-return ratio could enhance performance. This process involves adjusting the portfolio to find the optimal balance between risk and return, considering the investor's risk tolerance and investment goals.
The portfolio's dividend yield contributes to its total return, providing income alongside capital appreciation. The high yield from Amplify High Income ETF and Amplify ETF Trust suggests a focus on income-generating assets. While dividends can offer a steady income stream, it's important to balance yield-seeking with growth and capital preservation, especially in volatile markets.
The Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.80% reflects the cost of owning these ETFs. While the costs for the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF and Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares are low, the Amplify High Income ETF's cost is significantly higher. Reducing expenses can improve long-term returns, suggesting a review of the cost-benefit of the higher-cost ETFs might be warranted.
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