Concentrated US growth portfolio with strong momentum tilt and efficient risk adjusted performance
Report created on Jun 27, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 50.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 50.00%
This portfolio is very simple: two equity ETFs at 50% each, both focused on US large‑cap stocks. One fund tracks a growth‑oriented index, while the other targets stocks with strong price momentum. That makes the structure easy to understand and monitor because there are only two moving parts. The trade‑off is that diversification across different asset types and regions is limited, which is reflected in the low diversification score. A setup like this tends to live or die by how one market segment behaves rather than drawing on many different sources of return. The clear split and equal weights do, however, make it straightforward to see which ETF is driving performance over time.
Growth
Historically, this portfolio has been very strong: $1,000 grew to about $6,692 over the period, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.49%. CAGR is like your average speed on a road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. That return beat both the US market and the global market by a wide margin. The worst peak‑to‑trough fall, or max drawdown, was about ‑29.24%, actually smaller than the benchmarks’ drawdowns. Only 46 days accounted for 90% of gains, which shows returns were concentrated in a relatively small set of big up days. This pattern is typical for growthy, momentum‑driven portfolios that benefit strongly when their favored stocks are in fashion.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses past return and volatility patterns to simulate many possible future paths, like rolling the dice 1,000 different ways. Here, the median outcome after 15 years turns $1,000 into about $2,803, implying an annualized 8.23% across all simulations. The “likely range” from roughly $1,879 to $4,233 shows how wide results can be even with the same starting point. There are also more extreme but still possible outcomes from around $1,072 to $7,981. This illustrates that historical strength does not guarantee a repeat; future paths can vary a lot. The 75.6% chance of finishing ahead of cash reflects the growth bias, but also that negative or flat outcomes remain very possible.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio is in stocks, with no allocation to bonds, cash‑like instruments, or alternative assets. That single‑asset‑class focus is a big driver of both the growth potential and the risk score of 5/7. Equities are typically the main long‑term growth engine in portfolios, but they also tend to swing more when markets get stressed. Because there are no stabilizing asset classes here, the portfolio’s value is largely tied to the equity cycle. This setup can work well in strong equity markets, especially when the chosen style is in favor, but it offers little built‑in cushioning if stocks broadly go through a prolonged slump or sharp shock.
Sectors
- Technology 57%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 6%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Health Care 5%
- Financials 3%
- Energy 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 57%, with smaller slices in telecom, industrials, consumer areas, health care, and just tiny portions in financials, energy, materials, and utilities. That’s very different from a broad market mix, where technology is important but generally not this dominant. Sector tilts matter because different parts of the market respond differently to things like interest rates, regulation, or economic growth. A tech‑heavy, momentum‑oriented portfolio often benefits strongly when innovation and growth narratives drive markets, but can also feel sharper pullbacks when sentiment turns, valuations compress, or regulation and rates weigh on high‑growth business models.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely concentrated in North America at 99%, with only a 1% toe‑hold in developed Europe. This means nearly all returns are linked to one major economy and one currency. Global benchmarks tend to include much more non‑US exposure, so this is a clear home‑market focus rather than a world allocation. Geographic concentration can amplify the impact of country‑specific policy changes, economic cycles, and sector leadership. The strong historical performance partly reflects a decade where US large‑cap growth and tech companies have been standout winners; if leadership shifts to other regions in future, this portfolio would be slow to capture that.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 44%
- Mid-cap 10%
By market capitalization, the holdings lean heavily toward the largest companies: 46% mega‑cap, 44% large‑cap, and only 10% mid‑cap. That profile is even more top‑heavy than many broad indices, which already favor big firms. Large and mega‑caps often bring more stable business models, established brands, and deeper liquidity, which can moderate company‑specific risk. On the other hand, it means less exposure to smaller, potentially faster‑growing companies that sometimes drive different parts of the return cycle. In practice, this cap structure suggests the portfolio is driven most by a relatively small group of very big, well‑known names that dominate the top of major indices.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 8.17%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 8.02%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 3.96%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 3.75%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.55%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.37%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.12%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 2.03%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Top 10 total 42.14%
Looking through the ETFs’ top holdings, a lot of weight clusters in a handful of big tech and growth names. NVIDIA and Micron stand out with around 8% each, followed by Broadcom, Alphabet (both share classes), AMD, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Johnson & Johnson. Several of these appear in both ETFs, which creates overlap and hidden concentration even though there are two funds. Because only top‑10 ETF holdings are captured, actual overlap is likely understated. This concentration means the portfolio’s fortunes are closely tied to how a small group of large, growth‑oriented companies perform, rather than being evenly spread across hundreds of unrelated businesses.
Factors
Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum at 64%, with low scores on value, size, and yield, and neutral levels for quality and low volatility. Factors are like underlying “personality traits” of stocks — momentum favors shares that have done well recently, value leans toward cheaper names, and yield reflects dividend focus. A high momentum tilt fits with the chosen ETFs and helps explain the portfolio’s impressive historical returns during strong uptrends. The flip side is that momentum strategies can be vulnerable when market leadership flips quickly, leading to sharper drawdowns during reversals. The low value and yield exposure also means this portfolio is less anchored by “cheap” or income‑oriented stocks.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco QQQ Trust
Weight: 50.00% 52.2% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 50.00% 47.8%
Risk contribution reveals how much each ETF drives the overall ups and downs, which can differ from simple weight. Here, the split is straightforward: QQQ contributes about 52.22% of total portfolio risk, and the momentum ETF about 47.78%, very close to their 50/50 weights. That means neither fund is disproportionately amplifying volatility beyond its size. In more complex portfolios, a volatile holding can dominate risk even at a small weight, like a loud instrument overpowering an orchestra. In this case, risk is fairly evenly shared, so day‑to‑day movements should feel like a blended effect of growth‑oriented tech and broader momentum, rather than one ETF unexpectedly overshadowing the other.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier analysis shows the current mix is already very close to optimal for the holdings used. The portfolio’s Sharpe ratio, which compares excess return to risk, is 0.9, while both the optimal and minimum‑variance combinations of these same ETFs sit slightly higher at 1.04 with marginally lower risk. Because the points are effectively on the same curve, the current allocation is considered efficient — it’s not leaving a large, obvious improvement on the table just through reweighting. This suggests that the main drivers of risk and return are the chosen building blocks themselves (US growth and momentum equities) rather than how they are combined between these two particular funds.
Dividends
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.30%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.50%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is low at around 0.50%, with each ETF distributing only a small amount of income. Yield is the cash payout from dividends relative to the portfolio value, and here it indicates that most of the expected return comes from price changes rather than regular cash flows. That pattern is common in growth and momentum‑heavy portfolios, where companies often reinvest earnings instead of paying them out. For someone tracking cash income versus capital appreciation, this structure reflects a clear tilt toward growth. It also means that any need for withdrawals would generally be funded by selling shares rather than leaning on a steady stream of dividends.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.18%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.16%
Total ongoing costs are relatively low, with a combined TER of about 0.16% per year. TER (Total Expense Ratio) is the annual fee charged by the funds, and even small differences can compound meaningfully over long periods. In this case, the costs are impressively low for a concentrated, factor‑tilted equity approach, especially compared to many active or specialized strategies. Lower fees mean more of the portfolio’s gross return is kept rather than paid out in expenses. Given the historical performance numbers, this fee level suggests that the bulk of outcomes so far has been driven by market exposure and factor tilts rather than drag from high ongoing fund charges, which is a structural positive.
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