Highly concentrated growth portfolio tilted toward US mega cap technology and semiconductor stocks
Report created on May 9, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
QQ Invesco QQQ Trust
QQQ - US46090E1038 70.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 30.00%
This portfolio is made up of just two exchange-traded funds: a broad tech-heavy growth ETF at 70% and a focused semiconductor ETF at 30%. That means all exposure is in stocks, with no bonds, cash substitutes, or diversifying alternatives. Structurally, it’s a concentrated bet on growth-oriented companies, especially within the technology ecosystem. Having only two holdings keeps things simple and easy to track, but it also means fewer independent return drivers. When both ETFs move in the same direction, the whole portfolio moves with them. This structure emphasizes potential upside from a powerful theme while naturally accepting more pronounced swings in value along the way.
Growth
Over the last decade, $1,000 grew to about $12,181, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.49%. CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. This easily outpaced both the US market (15.40% CAGR) and global market (12.77% CAGR). The cost of that strong performance was a deeper worst loss, or max drawdown, at -39.28% versus roughly -34% for the benchmarks. The portfolio took about 23 months from peak to full recovery, showing that while high growth delivered impressive results, it also demanded patience through sharp declines and long rebuild periods.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses thousands of simulated paths, based on historical patterns, to estimate how $1,000 might grow over 15 years. It’s like running alternate “what if” futures using past volatility and returns. The median outcome ends around $2,749, with a wide central range between about $1,849 and $4,254. There’s roughly a 75% chance of finishing above the starting value, and the average simulated annual return is 8.19%. These results highlight that even for a historically strong portfolio, future paths can vary a lot. Importantly, simulations rely on the past and assumptions, so they illustrate possibilities, not promises of what will actually happen.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All of this portfolio sits in a single asset class: equities. That creates pure stock market exposure without the dampening effect that bonds or cash-like assets often provide. A 100% stock allocation tends to amplify both gains in strong markets and losses in downturns. Compared with broad mixed-asset benchmarks that blend stocks and bonds, this structure is intentionally growth-oriented and more volatile. The benefit is full participation in equity upside. The trade-off is that there’s little built-in cushion when risk assets fall together, so the portfolio’s value will generally swing more than a blended portfolio with multiple asset classes.
Sectors
- Technology 68%
- Telecommunications 11%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Health Care 3%
- Industrials 2%
- Utilities 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
Sector-wise, the portfolio is heavily tilted: about 68% in technology and another 11% in telecommunications, with smaller slices in consumer-related areas, health care, and other sectors. This is much more concentrated than broad market indices, where tech is significant but not this dominant. A tech- and semiconductor-heavy mix often benefits when innovation spending, digital adoption, and demand for computing power are strong. At the same time, these sectors can be sensitive to interest rate changes, business cycles, and shifts in investor appetite for growth stories. This strong sector tilt is a key driver of both the high past returns and the elevated volatility.
Regions
- North America 94%
- Asia Developed 3%
- Europe Developed 3%
Geographically, around 94% of the portfolio is tied to North America, with only small exposures to developed Asia and Europe. That means performance is closely linked to the US and Canadian markets, economies, and currencies, rather than being balanced across global regions. Compared with world equity benchmarks that spread more evenly across the US, Europe, and Asia, this portfolio leans clearly toward one major region. The advantage is strong alignment with North American innovation and tech leadership. The flip side is that any regional setback, regulatory shift, or economic slowdown there can affect most of the portfolio at once, limiting geographic diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 53%
- Large-cap 37%
- Mid-cap 9%
By market capitalization, the portfolio leans heavily toward the largest companies: about 53% in mega caps, 37% in large caps, and just 9% in mid caps. Mega caps are the giants of the market, often with established business models, global reach, and strong balance sheets. This structure lines up fairly closely with major growth and tech indices, which are also dominated by very large firms. A benefit of this tilt is exposure to companies that can often better weather competitive or economic pressures. However, it means less participation in smaller, more nimble companies that can sometimes grow faster but usually come with higher individual stock risk.
True holdings
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NV NVIDIA Corporation 10.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 4.97%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
AV Broadcom Inc 4.78%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.76%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.57%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 3.04%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.73%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.52%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
-
TS Tesla Inc 2.40%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco QQQ Trust
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Top 10 total 42.48%
Looking through the ETFs, several big names repeat across holdings, creating hidden concentration. NVIDIA alone adds up to about 10.76% of the portfolio, while Apple, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, Amazon, TSMC, Alphabet (both share classes), and Tesla all appear among the largest underlying exposures. This overlap means that even with two funds, many of the same companies drive returns. When these giants do well, the portfolio gets a strong boost, as seen in historical performance. But if a few of these core names struggle, the impact can be felt across both ETFs at once, amplifying company-specific risk that’s not obvious from the fund count alone.
Factors
The factor data shows a very low exposure to value at 14%, meaning a strong tilt away from cheaper, out-of-favor stocks. Factor exposure is like looking at the ingredients that shape returns beyond simple sectors or regions. Here, the portfolio emphasizes growth-oriented names more than value-driven ones, which has historically lined up with tech and semiconductor leadership. This has helped during periods when investors rewarded fast-growing companies, but value-leaning markets could be less favorable. Other factors are roughly neutral, suggesting that aside from the clear tilt away from value and toward growth characteristics, the portfolio behaves similarly to the broader market on size, momentum, quality, yield, and volatility.
Risk contribution
-
Invesco QQQ Trust
Weight: 70.00% 62.3% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 30.00% 37.8%
Risk contribution shows how much each position drives the portfolio’s overall ups and downs, not just how big it is. The larger ETF at 70% weight contributes about 62.25% of total risk, a bit less than its size would suggest. The semiconductor ETF, at only 30% weight, contributes around 37.75% of the risk, meaning each dollar in that fund is pulling more than its weight in volatility. This reflects the inherently choppier nature of semiconductor stocks. Together, these two holdings account for 100% of the risk, so portfolio behavior is almost entirely explained by how these specific growth and chip exposures move.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk–return chart shows this portfolio sitting on or very near the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier is the curve of best possible returns for each risk level using these same holdings in different weights. Here, the current mix has a Sharpe ratio of 0.92, while the maximum Sharpe version using only these two funds is 1.11 and the minimum variance blend has 0.95. Sharpe ratio compares excess return to volatility, like judging how much “bang for your buck” you get for each unit of risk. Being close to the frontier indicates that, for these two ETFs, the portfolio weights are already using them in a broadly efficient way.
Dividends
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.40%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.34%
Dividend yield is low at about 0.34% overall, with both funds offering modest income. Yield measures the cash payouts as a percentage of portfolio value, and in this case it’s a minor part of total return. That’s typical for growth- and tech-oriented strategies, where companies often reinvest profits into expansion instead of paying large dividends. Historically, the portfolio’s strong performance has come from price appreciation rather than income. For someone tracking cash flows, this means the day-to-day experience is more about changes in market value than about regular dividend payments, which play a relatively small supporting role in the return profile.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.24%
The weighted ongoing fee, or Total Expense Ratio (TER), is about 0.24% per year, with the larger ETF at 0.20% and the semiconductor ETF at 0.35%. TER is like a small annual subscription fee charged by the funds, quietly deducted from returns. This cost level is moderate to low for specialized, growth-focused ETFs and doesn’t stand out as a major drag. Lower costs leave more of any gross return in the investor’s hands over time, especially when compounded. In this case, the fee structure supports the portfolio’s long-term potential without meaningfully undermining its performance characteristics.
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