This portfolio is structured around three main ETFs, focusing entirely on stocks with a significant emphasis on global diversification. The Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF USD Accumulation, making up 40% of the portfolio, offers broad exposure to global equities. The Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex UK UCITS ETF, accounting for 30%, narrows this focus to developed European markets excluding the UK. Lastly, the Avantis Global Small Cap Value UCITS ETF USD Acc, also at 30%, targets value opportunities in the global small-cap sector. This composition suggests a strategic approach to capture growth across different regions and market caps, albeit with a complete tilt towards equities.
The historical performance of this portfolio, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.90% and a maximum drawdown of -19.87%, indicates a robust growth trajectory amidst moderate volatility. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to just 2.0 underscores the impact of significant market movements on portfolio performance. Comparing these figures to benchmarks could provide further context, but the performance is commendable for a balanced-risk profile, showcasing the portfolio's resilience during market fluctuations.
Monte Carlo simulations, which run numerous hypothetical scenarios to forecast future performance, suggest a wide range of outcomes for this portfolio. With a median (50th percentile) increase of 129.8% and a 67th percentile at 209.1%, the simulations indicate potential for significant growth. However, the 5th percentile showing a -24.6% loss highlights the inherent risks. These projections, while informative, are based on historical data and assumptions, meaning they are not guarantees of future performance.
The portfolio's allocation is exclusively in stocks, eschewing bonds, cash, or alternative investments. This concentration in a single asset class enhances growth potential but also increases volatility and risk, especially in market downturns. Diversifying across different asset classes could provide a buffer against stock market volatility, potentially stabilizing returns over time.
The sectoral allocation spans financial services, industrials, technology, and consumer cyclicals as the top sectors, reflecting a balanced approach with a tilt towards growth-oriented and cyclical sectors. This composition is well-suited for economic expansions but may carry higher volatility during downturns. The portfolio's underweight positions in defensive sectors like utilities and real estate could be reconsidered for added stability.
Geographically, the portfolio is heavily weighted towards North America and developed Europe, with minimal exposure to emerging markets and specific regions like Latin America and Africa/Middle East. This geographic distribution supports stability and growth potential but may miss out on the higher growth rates and diversification benefits that emerging markets can offer.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a diversified approach, with investments across mega, big, medium, small, and micro caps. This spread across different sizes of companies can help mitigate risk and capture growth from different market segments. However, the significant allocation to smaller companies (small and micro caps) introduces higher volatility and risk, aligning with the portfolio's balanced risk profile.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The Efficient Frontier analysis suggests that the portfolio could potentially achieve a higher expected return of 9.45% at the same risk level, indicating room for optimization. This implies that adjustments in asset allocation could enhance the risk-return profile. However, it's important to note that such optimizations are theoretical and based on historical data, which may not predict future performance accurately.
The portfolio's average Total Expense Ratio (TER) of 0.12% is impressively low, enhancing its attractiveness by minimizing the drag on returns due to costs. This cost efficiency is a strong point, particularly for long-term growth, as lower costs compound favorably over time.
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