Strongly growth tilted portfolio with a big semiconductor sleeve and efficient risk adjusted historic performance
Report created on May 7, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
4/5
Positions
-
SS State Street S&P 500 Index VIS Fund
SSSPX 46.91% -
VF VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2040 FUND INVESTOR SHARES
VFORX - US92202E8701 26.60% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 26.45% -
ME Meta Platforms Inc.
META - US30303M1027 0.03% -
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 0.01%
This portfolio is highly concentrated in three core holdings, which together make up essentially all of the weight and risk. Roughly half sits in an S&P 500 index fund, about a quarter in a 2040 target-date mutual fund, and about a quarter in a dedicated semiconductor ETF. Tiny positions in a broad US market ETF and a single stock barely move the needle. This structure means most outcomes will be driven by broad US equities plus a focused satellite bet on semiconductor companies. A concentrated core like this is easy to track and understand, but also means that changes in those main funds will dominate overall performance and risk.
Growth
Over the past decade, a hypothetical $1,000 invested in this mix grew to about $10,445, which is an unusually strong outcome. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.56% far exceeded both the US market (15.24%) and the global market (12.69%). CAGR is like your average speed on a long road trip, smoothing out bumps along the way. The portfolio’s worst peak‑to‑trough drop was about ‑33%, similar to the benchmarks, showing high growth without extra maximum downside. Returns were also concentrated: 90% of gains came from just 57 days, highlighting how missing a small number of strong days could have significantly changed results.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection uses those historical ups and downs to simulate 1,000 different possible 15‑year futures. It’s like rerunning history with the same dice but in different orders to see a range of outcomes. The median simulation turns $1,000 into about $2,174, with a “likely” middle band from roughly $1,651 to $2,824. Extreme but still plausible paths range from around $1,057 to $4,488. The average annual return across simulations is 5.76%, much lower than the backward‑looking 26.56% CAGR. This gap underlines that past performance, especially very strong periods, does not guarantee similar future results.
Asset classes
- No data 47%
- Stocks 46%
- Bonds 7%
Asset class data shows about 46% in stocks, 7% in bonds, and a sizeable 47% labeled “No data.” The “No data” slice simply reflects missing classification for some holdings, not necessarily cash or alternatives, so it’s best read as an information gap rather than a true allocation. The visible mix suggests an equity‑heavy profile with only a modest bond component. Equities typically drive long‑term growth but can be volatile, while bonds usually dampen swings. Relative to broad multi‑asset benchmarks, this portfolio appears growth‑oriented, with less emphasis on fixed income as a stabilizer and more focus on stock‑driven return.
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Financials 4%
- Industrials 3%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Health Care 2%
- Telecommunications 2%
- Consumer Staples 1%
- Energy 1%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Sector exposure is clearly tilted toward technology at 33%, with the rest spread across financials, industrials, consumer areas, health care, telecom, energy, materials, utilities, and real estate in low single digits. This overweight to technology aligns with the dedicated semiconductor ETF, which amplifies exposure to one highly cyclical, innovation‑driven area. Tech‑heavy portfolios often benefit strongly when growth and innovation are rewarded but can be more sensitive during rate hikes or when investors rotate toward more defensive sectors. The remaining sectors are broadly represented, which helps provide some balance, but overall behavior will likely track technology conditions more than a fully even sector mix would.
Regions
- North America 39%
- Europe Developed 5%
- Asia Developed 5%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Geographically, the portfolio is led by North America at 39%, with smaller slices in developed Europe and Asia (5% each), Japan (2%), and emerging Asia (1%). This pattern is broadly consistent with common global equity benchmarks that give a large share to US markets, though here North America’s documented share looks somewhat lower than typical global indices. The missing “No data” portion from the asset‑class view likely masks additional exposures, so the real country mix is more diversified than these percentages alone show. Still, the visible tilt means currency and economic outcomes in North America, particularly the US, will be an important driver.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 22%
- Large-cap 17%
- Mid-cap 5%
- Small-cap 1%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Market capitalization data indicates a strong lean toward the largest companies: 22% in mega‑caps and 17% in large‑caps, with smaller amounts in mid‑caps (5%) and small‑caps (1%). Mega‑ and large‑caps are often more stable and widely followed, with diversified business lines, which can moderate volatility relative to a small‑cap‑heavy portfolio. At the same time, heavy emphasis on the biggest firms ties results closely to how those giants perform. Compared with many broad market indices, this pattern is fairly typical and suggests that, at least by size, the portfolio’s equity behavior should resemble mainstream equity benchmarks rather than a niche small‑cap or micro‑cap strategy.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.45%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 2.77%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.11%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
IN Intel Corporation 1.95%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 1.65%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.35%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TX Texas Instruments Incorporated 1.33%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AD Analog Devices Inc 1.17%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
QC Qualcomm Incorporated 1.12%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
KL KLA Corporation 1.10%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 18.99%
This breakdown covers the equity portion of your portfolio only.
Looking through the funds’ top holdings, the most visible underlying exposures are leading semiconductor names such as NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Broadcom, Intel, AMD, and others. Each of these appears only via ETFs and sums to low‑single‑digit percentages, but together they represent a meaningful semiconductor cluster. There is limited overlap in individual stocks beyond that, and the only named direct overlap is a tiny Meta position that does not appear in the ETF top‑tens. Because only ETF top‑10s are used, true overlap is likely somewhat higher. Even so, the data clearly shows a focused bet on a particular industry rather than concentration in a single company.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure analysis shows mild tilts away from value and yield, with both sitting in the “Low” range, and neutral exposure to size, momentum, quality, and low volatility. Factors are like underlying ingredients — characteristics such as cheapness (value), recent performance (momentum), or stability (low volatility) that help explain how investments behave. A low value score suggests the portfolio leans more toward growth‑oriented or higher‑valuation companies, which fits with the tech and semiconductor emphasis. A low yield score reflects relatively modest dividend income. Overall, the factor profile is growth‑tilted but not extreme, with no strong style bets besides the preference for lower‑yielding, higher‑valuation stocks.
Risk contribution
-
State Street S&P 500 Index VIS Fund
Weight: 46.91% 43.7% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 26.45% 39.4% -
VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2040 FUND INVESTOR SHARES
Weight: 26.60% 16.9% -
Meta Platforms Inc.
Weight: 0.03% 0.0% -
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 0.01% 0.0%
Risk contribution shows how much each holding drives the portfolio’s total ups and downs, which can differ from simple weights. Here, the semiconductor ETF is about 26% by weight but contributes roughly 39% of overall risk, giving it a high risk‑to‑weight ratio of 1.49. The S&P 500 fund, despite being nearly half the portfolio, contributes a similar 44% of risk, while the 2040 target‑date fund adds only about 17% of risk on a 27% weight. That means the semiconductor sleeve punches above its weight in volatility terms. Tiny positions in Meta and the total market ETF are essentially irrelevant to total risk.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationVanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF SharesVANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2040 FUND INVESTOR SHARES
Correlation measures how closely different holdings move together, with 1 meaning they move almost in lockstep. The data highlights a near‑perfect correlation between the Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 fund and the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. That makes sense because the target‑date fund includes a large equity component tied to the same underlying market. In practice, this means those two positions don’t provide much extra diversification relative to each other: when one goes up or down, the other tends to move similarly. However, because the total market ETF is such a tiny weight, this high correlation doesn’t materially change overall portfolio diversification.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return optimization chart shows the portfolio sitting right on, or very close to, the efficient frontier built from its existing holdings. The efficient frontier represents the best possible return for each level of risk using different weight combinations of the same investments. The current mix has a Sharpe ratio of 0.99, compared with 1.20 for the mathematically optimal combination and 0.74 for the lowest‑risk mix. The Sharpe ratio is a simple way to compare risk‑adjusted returns — higher is better. Being near the frontier suggests the current allocation is already using these holdings efficiently, without obvious historical mis‑weighting.
Dividends
- Meta Platforms Inc. 0.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2040 FUND INVESTOR SHARES 2.60%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.74%
The portfolio’s overall dividend yield is about 0.74%, which is modest compared with many broad equity income strategies. Yield measures the annual cash payout relative to price, like interest from a savings account but variable and not guaranteed. The main income driver here is the Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 fund, with a 2.6% yield, while the semiconductor ETF and Meta have very low payouts. This pattern fits with a growth‑tilted portfolio that relies more on price appreciation than ongoing cash distributions. Dividends still contribute to total return, but they appear to be a secondary feature rather than a central design element.
Ongoing product costs
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- State Street S&P 500 Index VIS Fund 0.04%
- VANGUARD TARGET RETIREMENT 2040 FUND INVESTOR SHARES 0.08%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.13%
The weighted average total expense ratio (TER) for the portfolio is 0.13%, which is impressively low given its strong equity tilt and use of specialized exposure. TER is the annual fee charged by funds, expressed as a percentage of assets, and acts like a small headwind against returns every year. Here, the broad S&P 500 and total market exposures are particularly inexpensive, while the semiconductor ETF is costlier but still moderate for a niche strategy. Over long periods, keeping costs low supports better net outcomes, so this fee level is a structural strength and aligns well with best practices in cost‑conscious investing.
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