The portfolio comprises four ETFs, with the Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF holding the majority at 60%. This is followed by iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF at 20%, VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF at 10%, and iShares MSCI World Small Cap UCITS ETF also at 10%. The portfolio is moderately diversified across different ETFs, focusing mainly on global and U.S. equities. This composition suggests a balanced approach, aiming for growth while maintaining some level of risk management.
Historically, the portfolio has performed well with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.68%. However, it has also experienced a maximum drawdown of -15.8%, indicating periods of significant decline. The fact that 90% of the returns come from just 11 days highlights the volatility and importance of market timing. This performance suggests that while the portfolio has the potential for high returns, it also carries a risk of substantial short-term losses.
Using a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations, the portfolio's future performance was projected. A Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling to model the probability of different outcomes. The results show a wide range of potential outcomes, with the 5th percentile at -100% and the median at -95.69%. Only 221 simulations resulted in positive returns, with an overall annualized return of 31.77%. This indicates high uncertainty and potential for significant losses, though also the possibility of high returns.
The portfolio's asset allocation is heavily weighted towards unknown assets at 70%, with stocks making up nearly 30%. There is a negligible allocation to cash and bonds. This heavy reliance on equities suggests a growth-oriented strategy but also exposes the portfolio to higher volatility. To balance risk, it might be prudent to consider diversifying into other asset classes like bonds or real estate.
Sector-wise, the portfolio is highly concentrated in technology at 16.36%, with smaller allocations in financial services, healthcare, and consumer cyclicals. This concentration in technology could lead to higher returns in booming tech markets but also poses a risk if the sector underperforms. Diversifying into other sectors could help mitigate this risk and provide more stability.
Geographically, the portfolio is predominantly unknown at 70%, with significant exposure to North America at 27.81%, and minor allocations to developed Asia and Europe. This geographic concentration might limit the benefits of global diversification. Expanding exposure to emerging markets and other regions could provide additional growth opportunities and reduce geographic risk.
Dividend yield data is not provided for this portfolio. However, given the heavy focus on growth-oriented ETFs, it is likely that the portfolio's dividend yield is relatively low. For investors seeking regular income, adding high-dividend ETFs or dividend-paying stocks could be beneficial.
The portfolio's costs are relatively low, with the iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF having an expense ratio of 0.12% and the VanEck Semiconductor UCITS ETF at 0.35%. The total expense ratio (TER) is 0.06%, indicating efficient cost management. Keeping costs low is crucial for maximizing net returns over the long term.
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