Momentum junkie S&P hugger with a secret semiconductor crush hiding inside a “balanced” badge
Report created on May 4, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
VO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
VOO - US9229083632 80.00% -
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 10.00% -
MS Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - US5949181045 5.00% -
SO Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
SOXQ - US46138G6153 5.00%
This “portfolio” is basically the S&P 500 with a couple of energy drinks poured into it. Eighty percent is a plain-vanilla S&P ETF, 10% is a momentum-flavored S&P remix, then 5% in Microsoft on top of the Microsoft you already own, and 5% in a semiconductor ETF just to crank the volatility dial. Structurally, this is less a diversified portfolio and more an S&P 500 fan club with VIP passes for big tech and chips. It looks tidy on paper, but the actual risk is being driven by a tiny cast of usual suspects, while everything else just tags along for the ride.
Growth
Historically, the portfolio pulled off a respectable flex: turning $1,000 into $1,960 with a 14.82% CAGR. That beats both the US and global markets over this period, so the recent past has been kind. Of course, the max drawdown of -25.54% reminded everyone that momentum plus semis doesn’t go down gently; it just swan-dives, then eventually crawls back, taking more than a year to fully recover. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is like your average speed on a very bumpy road trip — and this car hit some potholes. Past data is helpful, but it’s still yesterday’s weather, not tomorrow’s forecast.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection basically says, “Yeah, this could go great… or not.” Monte Carlo is just a fancy way of running thousands of what-if scenarios based on past volatility, like simulating 1,000 alternate financial universes. Median outcome, $2,801 from $1,000 in 15 years, sounds fine, but the “possible” range is $972 to $7,976 — which is code for “anything from barely breaking even to feeling very clever.” A 74.7% chance of a positive outcome is decent, but the spread shows how mood-swingy this kind of equity-heavy, momentum-flavored mix can be when the market stops cooperating.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset class breakdown is easy: stocks, stocks, and more stocks. A clean 100% in equities is not “balanced” in any normal-human sense of the word; it’s basically saying every dollar is riding the market rollercoaster with zero chill. Asset classes are like food groups — having only one can work for a while, but long term it’s a weird diet. There’s no ballast here, nothing designed to behave differently when stocks have a tantrum. So when the equity market sneezes, this portfolio doesn’t reach for tissues; it just catches the flu on purpose.
Sectors
- Technology 42%
- Financials 10%
- Telecommunications 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Industrials 8%
- Consumer Discretionary 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 4%
- Utilities 2%
- Basic Materials 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector mix screams tech obsession with a side of denial. Technology at 42% is a full-on identity, not a tilt. Then you sprinkle in some financials, telecom, health care, and the usual suspects to make it look diversified, but the headline story is still “please let big tech keep winning forever.” Sector allocations matter because they decide which economic stories you’re really betting on. Here, the story is that high-growth, innovation-heavy businesses stay in charge and don’t ever collectively stumble. When tech cools, this portfolio doesn’t just get rained on; it’s the one standing outside without an umbrella.
Regions
- North America 99%
- Europe Developed 1%
Geography is “USA or bust,” with 99% in North America and a token 1% nod to developed Europe like someone remembered the rest of the world at the last minute. This is home bias on steroids. Geographic allocation is about spreading your bets across different economies and political systems, not just different ticker symbols all tied to the same country’s fate. With this setup, anything that hits the US market broadly — regulation, recession, currency issues — hits almost the whole portfolio at once. The global market exists; this portfolio just pretends it’s a rounding error.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 47%
- Large-cap 36%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 1%
Market cap exposure shows a serious love affair with giants: 47% mega-cap, 36% large-cap, a little mid-cap, and small-cap basically as a novelty item. This is the “biggest kids in the playground only” strategy. Market cap matters because it influences how sensitive you are to different kinds of risks — megacaps move slower until they really don’t, and then everything shakes at once. There’s almost no entrepreneurial or smaller-company flavor here; it’s mostly the corporate equivalent of blue-chip celebrities. When the star names wobble, this portfolio doesn’t have much undercard depth to soften the blow.
True holdings
-
Part of fund(s):
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 7.48%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AA Apple Inc 5.33%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 3.39%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.94%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 2.91%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.79%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.50%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
-
BR Berkshire Hathaway Inc 1.26%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
- Top 10 total 37.89%
Look-through holdings reveal that Microsoft is basically the main character here: 8.94% total exposure, with 5% held directly and the rest smuggled in through ETFs. NVIDIA at 7.48%, Apple at 5.33%, and the usual tech titans all keep popping up in multiple wrappers. Overlap means you think you own a bunch of different things, but in reality you’re just finding new ways to buy the same celebrities. And remember, this overlap is only from ETF top-10s, so the real concentration is likely even spicier. Hidden concentration like this turns a “diversified ETF mix” into a tech mega-cap echo chamber.
Factors
Factor exposures are hilariously neutral across the board — value, size, momentum, quality, yield, low volatility all hovering around “market-like.” For a portfolio with a dedicated momentum ETF and a semiconductor tilt, it somehow ends up factor-average, like it dressed up loud but tested neutral in the lab. Factors are the hidden ingredients — things like cheap vs. expensive, stable vs. wild — that explain why portfolios behave the way they do. Here, the message is: underneath the shiny tech bias, you’ve basically recreated a plain market-like factor profile, just with more thematic drama layered on top.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF
Weight: 80.00% 75.9% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.8% -
Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 5.00% 8.7% -
Microsoft Corporation
Weight: 5.00% 5.7%
Risk contribution blows up the illusion that everything is sharing the load equally. The S&P 500 ETF is 80% of the weight and about 76% of the risk — fine, it’s the main driver as advertised. But that 5% semiconductor ETF pulling 8.68% of total risk is the loud kid in the back of the class, and Microsoft at 5% contributing 5.66% risk is also punching slightly above its weight. When three holdings account for over 94% of total risk, the rest of the positions exist mostly for decoration. The ups and downs are really coming from a tiny cluster of big, correlated bets.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The efficient frontier is quietly judging this portfolio. At its current risk level, it sits 2.61 percentage points below what could be achieved just by rearranging the same ingredients. The Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk, or “how much pain for how much gain”) is 0.64, while the optimal combo of your existing holdings shows 1.03 — that’s a big gap. Translation: with these exact same funds and stock, you could have a much cleaner risk/return deal. Sitting below the frontier is like paying full ticket price and still not getting the best seat in the theater.
Dividends
- Microsoft Corporation 0.90%
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.80%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 1.10%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.02%
Dividend yield at 1.02% is basically a polite suggestion, not an income stream. With big tech, momentum, and semis in the mix, that’s not surprising — this lineup is more about price swings than steady cash payments. Dividend yield is just the percentage of your investment you get back as cash each year, and here it’s more of a side effect than a feature. Anyone pretending this is a “income-conscious” setup is kidding themselves; this portfolio clearly prefers companies that reinvest and run fast over those that quietly send you checks.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF 0.19%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Vanguard S&P 500 ETF 0.03%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.05%
Costs are, annoyingly, one of the few things this portfolio nails. A total TER of 0.05% is impressively low — that’s “did you bribe Vanguard?” territory. The S&P core at 0.03% drags the average down so hard the pricier momentum and semiconductor ETFs barely move the needle. TER (Total Expense Ratio) is the yearly fee skimmed off to keep the funds running, and here it’s basically a rounding error. So yes, the strategy might be noisy and concentrated, but at least you’re not overpaying for the privilege. You built a leveraged-feeling equity ride at bus-pass pricing.
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