Three index funds pretending to be diversified while worshipping the same tech gods
Report created on May 30, 2026Risk profile
4/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 60.00% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 25.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 15.00%
This “three-fund” masterpiece looks diversified until reading glasses go on. Sixty percent is the broad US market, 25% is the NASDAQ 100 sitting on top of that, and 15% is thrown to international stocks like a consolation prize. Structurally, it’s basically “US stocks plus more of the spiciest US stocks,” with a token nod to the rest of the planet. It’s simple, which is good, but it’s also doubling down on the same growthy engine. This is less a carefully balanced mix and more a basic index portfolio that got overexcited about one extra ETF and never looked back.
Growth
Historically, this thing has done very well on paper: $1,000 turned into $2,284 with a 15.87% CAGR. CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is just the “average speed” of your money over time. You slightly lagged the US market while beating the global market, which is exactly what you’d expect from a US-heavy, tech-tilted mix. The -28% max drawdown was a proper punch in the face, worse than the US market drop, and it took over a year to crawl back. Those 26 days that made 90% of returns basically say: miss the party days, eat the downside anyway.
Projection
The Monte Carlo simulation is the financial equivalent of running 1,000 alternate universes and seeing how often this portfolio doesn’t crash and burn. Median outcome: $1,000 becomes about $2,802 in 15 years, with a wide “could be fine, could be meh” band between roughly $1,790 and $4,220. There’s a 74% chance of ending up positive, which is decent but nowhere near guaranteed-win territory. The possible range from $1,004 to $7,887 is a nice reminder that models are basically fancy guesses based on past behavior. Past data is like yesterday’s weather forecast: helpful, but it won’t stop a surprise storm.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset-class mix: 100% stocks, 0% anything else. This is not “balanced” in any traditional sense; it’s pure growth-mode with no brakes. Asset classes are the big buckets (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash) that usually spread risk. Here, the bucket list is just “equities and vibes.” That’s fine if the intent is all-in on market upside, but calling it balanced is like calling a sports car “family friendly” because it technically has four seats. The ride will be fast when markets are kind and absolutely unforgiving when they aren’t, because there’s nothing in the mix that behaves differently in a real crisis.
Sectors
- Technology 37%
- Financials 11%
- Telecommunications 10%
- Consumer Discretionary 10%
- Industrials 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Consumer Staples 5%
- Energy 3%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector breakdown screams “Tech is my personality.” Roughly 37% in technology with another chunk in consumer discretionary and telecom means a lot of exposure to growthy, innovation-driven stories. Financials and health care exist but feel like supporting cast. Sector diversification is like not eating only pizza all week; this portfolio basically went pizza, garlic bread, and cheesy sticks and called it “variety.” When tech has a great run, everything looks genius. When tech gets kneecapped, a huge chunk of this portfolio gets hit at once, because too many holdings rhyme with each other economically.
Regions
- North America 86%
- Europe Developed 6%
- Asia Developed 2%
- Japan 2%
- Asia Emerging 2%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
Geography-wise, this portfolio basically assumes the sun rises in North America and everyone else is a side quest. With 86% in North America, the rest of the world is background decoration at single-digit levels. Geographic diversification is about not betting your future on one political system, one currency, and one economic cycle. This setup is America-or-bust, even though the ETFs claim to be “total” and “international.” The result is a portfolio that moves almost entirely to the rhythm of US markets, with international exposure so small it’s more of an accent color than real diversification.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 45%
- Large-cap 32%
- Mid-cap 17%
- Small-cap 4%
- Micro-cap 1%
Market cap mix is heavily tilted toward giants: 45% mega-cap and 32% large-cap, with mid, small, and micro caps left to fight over scraps. Market cap is basically company size; right now, this portfolio is hanging out almost exclusively with the corporate equivalents of mega-celebrities. That means it rises and falls mostly on the mood swings of the biggest names, not the broader economy. Smaller companies are present, but so underrepresented that their behavior barely registers. The end result is smooth-ish exposure to the market’s most famous names, while the scrappier parts of the market mostly watch from the sidelines.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 6.11%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc 5.29%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 3.88%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 3.38%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.85%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 2.51%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 2.37%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 1.80%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.16%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 0.95%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Top 10 total 30.31%
The look-through holdings reveal the punchline: this isn’t three funds; it’s one giant bet on the US mega-cap tech club. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (twice), Broadcom, Tesla, Meta, Micron — all show up via ETFs, stacking exposure to the same handful of names. Overlap is probably bigger than shown, since only ETF top 10s are counted. This is like ordering three different combo meals and discovering they all come with the same fries. The portfolio looks diversified at the fund label level but, under the hood, a small group of tech titans is doing a suspicious amount of the heavy lifting.
Factors
Factor exposure is almost aggressively normal: value, size, momentum, quality, yield, and low volatility all sit around “neutral.” Factors are the hidden ingredients that explain why returns behave a certain way — like whether the portfolio prefers cheap stocks, fast movers, or boringly stable ones. Here, the factor profile just shrugs and says “market-like.” The funny part is that this factor blandness sits on top of pretty dramatic concentration in US mega-cap growth names. So the factors say “chill and diversified,” while the actual holdings say “all hail big tech.” It’s a surprisingly balanced ingredient list hiding a pretty one-dimensional flavor.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 60.00% 58.1% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 25.00% 30.4% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 15.00% 11.5%
Risk contribution reveals who’s actually driving the roller coaster. The broad US fund is 60% of the weight and contributes about 58% of the risk, so it more or less behaves as advertised. The NASDAQ 100 at 25% weight throws in over 30% of total risk — classic overachiever — with a risk/weight ratio of 1.21. That’s the spicy one. The international fund is 15% of the portfolio but only 11.5% of the risk, so it’s more of a background character smoothing things out. In other words, a quarter of the portfolio is doing nearly a third of the freaking out when markets wobble, thanks to that growth-heavy tilt.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the efficient frontier, this portfolio is actually… competent. The current setup has a Sharpe ratio of 0.7, while the optimal mix of the same three funds could push that to about 0.86 with slightly higher risk. Sharpe is just return per unit of risk — miles per gallon for portfolios. You’re basically on the frontier, meaning for this specific trio of ETFs, the tradeoff between risk and return is reasonably efficient. So the ingredients are simple, the recipe is slightly tech-obsessed, but at least the proportions aren’t mathematically dumb. Annoyingly for a roast, the main inefficiencies are more about concentration than pure optimization.
Dividends
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.40%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.00%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.70%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.10%
Dividend yield sits at a very underwhelming 1.10%, dragged down hard by the NASDAQ ETF’s 0.40%. Dividends are the boring cash payments some companies hand out, like a quiet bonus while you wait. This portfolio clearly doesn’t care about that and is focused on price growth instead. Which is fine, but it does mean that in quieter, sideways markets, there isn’t much income drip to soften the experience. The international fund is trying with a 2.70% yield, but with only 15% weight, it’s like one person at a party trying to keep everyone hydrated while the rest are slamming growth shots.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.06%
Costs are almost suspiciously low, with a total expense ratio around 0.06%. That’s “did you typo this?” cheap. The Vanguard funds are basically free in ETF terms, and even the NASDAQ ETF at 0.15% isn’t offensive. Fees are the one part of investing you can control, and here they’re being handled with ruthless efficiency. It’s like flying economy but somehow skipping baggage fees and seat charges. The downside? With fees this low, there’s no convenient villain to blame if returns disappoint — it won’t be costs dragging performance, it’ll be the deliberate choice to ride or die with US and big tech-heavy equity exposure.
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