The portfolio is heavily concentrated in three ETFs: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (40%), Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF Shares (30%), and Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF Shares (30%). This composition reflects a growth-oriented strategy with a significant emphasis on the technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which collectively make up 74% of the portfolio. The reliance on a single asset class (stocks) and minimal sectoral and geographic diversification pose a higher risk, especially during market downturns or sector-specific shocks.
Historically, this portfolio has exhibited a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.89%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.67%. These figures suggest robust growth potential but also underline the portfolio's susceptibility to significant losses during market corrections. The days contributing to 90% of returns being limited to 39.0 indicates that the portfolio's performance is highly reliant on short-term gains, which may not be sustainable long-term.
Monte Carlo simulations, using historical data to project future outcomes, suggest a wide range of potential portfolio values. The 50th percentile outcome at 881.6% growth is optimistic, indicating strong growth potential. However, the significant spread between the 5th (161.2%) and 67th (1,298.2%) percentiles highlights the portfolio's volatility and the inherent uncertainty in these projections.
The portfolio is entirely allocated to stocks, with no presence in other asset classes like bonds or real estate. This one-dimensional strategy maximizes growth potential but lacks the risk mitigation benefits that come from diversification across different asset classes, which can provide more stability during market volatility.
A deep dive into sector allocation reveals a heavy tilt towards technology (44%) and consumer cyclicals (33%). While these sectors can offer substantial growth, they are also prone to higher volatility. The underrepresentation of traditionally defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer defensive, which each make up less than 5% of the portfolio, further amplifies risk.
Geographically, the portfolio is almost entirely invested in North America (99%), with a negligible allocation to Latin America (1%). This concentration in a single region, while potentially capitalizing on local market growth, limits exposure to international diversification benefits and could increase vulnerability to region-specific economic downturns.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega (47%) and big (28%) cap stocks, which are typically less volatile than smaller companies. However, the presence of medium (16%), small (6%), and micro (2%) cap stocks introduces additional layers of risk and potential for growth, suggesting a mixed approach to risk management within the stock allocation.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current composition and its alignment with the Efficient Frontier, there's room for optimization to achieve a better risk-return ratio. Adjusting the asset allocation to introduce more diversification across asset classes and geographic regions could enhance the portfolio's efficiency, potentially offering similar returns with reduced volatility.
The overall dividend yield of the portfolio stands at 0.84%, with the highest yield coming from the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF at 1.20%. While dividends contribute to the portfolio's total return, the focus on growth sectors like technology, which traditionally offer lower dividends, means income generation is not a primary goal of this portfolio.
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.07% is impressively low, supporting better long-term performance by minimizing the drag on returns caused by fees. This is a positive aspect of the portfolio, as lower costs are crucial for maximizing the compounding of returns over time.
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