Roast mode 🔥

A 100 percent stock rocket ship pretending a 37 percent crash is just a mild inconvenience

Report created on Feb 18, 2026

Risk profile Info

5/7
Growth
Less risk More risk

Diversification profile Info

4/5
Broadly Diversified
Less diversification More diversification

Positions

This setup is basically “all gas no brakes” with a thin veneer of sophistication. Four ETFs sounds diversified, but it’s really one big equity bet split into “US big stuff” and “international and small value spice.” Versus a typical growth portfolio that might throw in some bonds or cash as shock absorbers, this thing just shrugs and chooses chaos. It’s coherent, sure, but there’s zero ballast. If the goal is long-term growth, cool, but consider carving out a modest slice for boring stabilizers: things that usually zig when stocks zag, so the next crash feels like a setback, not an existential crisis.

Growth Info

Historically, the numbers look like they were written by a marketing intern on caffeine: ~15% CAGR is very strong. If someone had tossed in $10,000, they’d be sitting on roughly $40,000-ish after 10 years, while a broad global stock benchmark might be more in the mid-30k range. But that -37% max drawdown is the plot twist. That same $10,000 has, at some point, looked more like $6,300. Past returns are helpful, but they’re like bragging about last season’s game; the next crash doesn’t care how good the backstory looks on a chart.

Projection Info

The Monte Carlo projections are wildly optimistic-looking: median outcome around 6.5x your money, upper scenarios near 10x, and even the 5th percentile barely losing value. Monte Carlo is basically a thousand “what if” timelines based on past volatility and returns, like running a Marvel multiverse for your portfolio. But it uses yesterday’s mood swings to guess tomorrow’s drama, which is flawed at best. This set of results screams “equity party forever,” which reality usually interrupts. Treat those shiny projected returns as a ceiling of dreams, not a plan. Building in some downside buffers would make future-you less hostage to market mood swings.

Asset classes Info

  • Stocks
    100%

Asset “classes” is generous here; this is 100% stocks cosplaying as diversification. No bonds, no cash, no alternatives—just pure equity volatility straight to the face. For someone early in their journey with decades ahead, that can make sense. For anyone closer to needing the money, it’s like driving a sports car in the rain with bald tires. Different asset classes exist so that when one gets punched, another might just flinch. Consider layering in at least a small allocation to lower-volatility assets, not for returns, but so you’re not forced to sell stocks at yard-sale prices when markets tank.

Sectors Info

  • Financials
    21%
  • Industrials
    17%
  • Technology
    15%
  • Consumer Discretionary
    11%
  • Health Care
    8%
  • Basic Materials
    7%
  • Energy
    6%
  • Consumer Staples
    5%
  • Telecommunications
    5%
  • Utilities
    2%
  • Real Estate
    2%

Sector-wise, it’s actually not a clown show: financials, industrials, and tech lead, with solid representation across most areas. But 21% in financials is a bit of a “please let interest rates not nuke me” prayer, and 17% in industrials means you’re tied to the global economic cycle whether you like it or not. Tech at 15% is actually more restrained than many index-huggers, so kudos for not being entirely hypnotized by shiny software logos. Still, sector tilts can bite hard together in a recession. Periodically check if any one sector creeps above “comfort zone” and trim back before it starts dictating your entire emotional state.

Regions Info

  • North America
    42%
  • Europe Developed
    32%
  • Japan
    15%
  • Asia Developed
    5%
  • Australasia
    4%
  • Africa/Middle East
    1%

Geographically, this isn’t the usual “USA or die” portfolio, which is surprisingly grown-up. About 42% in North America and the rest mostly in developed international markets is closer to a global-cap-weighted view than most US investors ever manage. That said, emerging markets at basically 0% means skipping some of the world’s faster-growing but messier economies. That’s a trade-off: less political and currency drama, but also less exposure to long-term demographic and growth tailwinds. If the goal is truly broad global exposure, nudging a small slice into more volatile but higher-growth regions could add some spice without turning the whole thing into a reality show.

Market capitalization Info

  • Mega-cap
    36%
  • Large-cap
    25%
  • Mid-cap
    18%
  • Small-cap
    12%
  • Micro-cap
    8%

Market cap spread is actually pretty decent: a base of mega and large caps (61%) with a meaningful chunk in mid, small, and even micro caps. That small-value tilt via Avantis is like adding hot sauce—extra flavor, more kick, but also more indigestion during downturns. When markets crash, small and value can get stomped harder and recover on their own chaotic schedule. The structure makes sense for long-term growth hunters, but it’s not built for people who panic-sell at -20%. Keeping the tilt but modestly dialing back the most volatile slices as goals get closer would make this spicy without being stomach-ulcer investing.

Risk vs. return

This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.

Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.

From a risk–return efficiency standpoint, this is like showing up to a marathon barefoot: bold, fast, but unnecessarily painful. You’re hugging the upper-right of the risk spectrum—high expected return, high volatility—without much effort to slide back along the curve to smoother options. “Efficient” usually means the best return for a given level of risk, not “YOLO the max volatility and hope it works.” Here, a small dose of lower-risk assets could dramatically cut drawdowns without wrecking long-term return potential. As it stands, the trade-off is brutal: great upside, but the kind of downside that tests whether the investor really believes in their own long-term plan.

Dividends Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 2.70%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.40%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 3.10%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF 1.10%
  • Weighted yield (per year) 2.40%

A ~2.4% total yield is a nice side perk, not a solid income plan. It’s like getting free fries with your burger—not the main event, but you won’t say no. International stocks pulling higher yields is pretty typical, and the small-cap value funds do their part too. Still, if the idea was “live off dividends one day,” this setup is more growth-first, income-second. Dividends can also vanish when companies get stressed, so leaning too hard on that 2.4% would be optimistic. Better to see yield as a small bonus while the main story is long-term price appreciation and compounding.

Ongoing product costs Info

  • Avantis® International Small Cap Value ETF 0.36%
  • Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
  • Schwab International Equity ETF 0.06%
  • Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF 0.03%
  • Weighted costs total (per year) 0.11%

Costs are suspiciously reasonable for something this aggressive. A total expense ratio of about 0.11% is basically couch-cushion money in investing terms. The Schwab ETFs are practically free, and even the Avantis funds, while pricier, are still in “I care about factor tilts” territory rather than “I enjoy gifting money to fund managers.” Low costs mean more of the return party actually shows up in your account. Just don’t let the bargain pricing justify ignoring risk. Cheap adrenaline is still adrenaline. Keep an eye out for cheaper vehicles that do the same job, but there’s nothing fee-criminal happening here.

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