Highly aggressive momentum heavy portfolio with extreme recent returns and concentrated technology exposure
Report created on Mar 30, 2026Risk profile
7/7
Diversification profile
2/5
Positions
-
SP Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
SPMO - US46138E3392 35.05% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 29.79% -
QQ Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
QQQM - US46138G6492 18.41% -
FZ FIDELITY ZERO TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUND
FZROX - US31635T7081 13.08% -
SP SPDR S&P World ex US
SPDW - US78463X8891 3.52% -
SP Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund
SPAXX - US31617H1023 0.15%
This portfolio is almost entirely in growth‑oriented equity ETFs and a broad US index fund, with a tiny cash‑like money market slice. The heaviest weights sit in a US momentum strategy and a focused semiconductor fund, with a secondary tilt to large growth names via a NASDAQ 100 fund and a total US market index. This structure leans hard into stock market upside and offers very little ballast during equity sell‑offs. Given the purely buy‑and‑hold assumption and low diversification score, short‑term swings could be large. With only about seven months of history, it’s too early to call this a stable pattern, so any conclusions should be treated as tentative rather than long‑term truths.
Growth
Over the short period analyzed, $1,000 grew to about $1,082, yet the reported CAGR figure is extremely high because it annualizes a brief, very strong run. CAGR, or compound annual growth rate, is like calculating the average speed of a car trip; if you only look at a short downhill stretch, the number is misleading. The portfolio’s max drawdown of around -6.6% was similar to broad markets, but it outpaced both US and global benchmarks in this window. Most gains came from just one day, which shows how dependent results were on a few big moves. With only seven months of data, this performance may not reflect how it behaves across a full cycle.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
All investable assets here are in stocks, with effectively 0% in bonds, alternatives, or stable income vehicles. That all‑equity stance lines up with the “speculative investor” risk label and is consistent with someone prioritizing growth over stability. Being 100% in stocks can work over very long horizons but also means you ride out full market storms without much cushion. In sharp downturns, there’s no built‑in safety net from lower‑volatility asset classes. This equity‑only setup is simple and cost‑efficient, and it has strong growth potential, but it also puts more pressure on personal risk tolerance, time horizon, and the ability to avoid panic decisions when markets get rough.
Sectors
- Technology 59%
- Industrials 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Health Care 6%
- Financials 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Consumer Discretionary 3%
- Energy 2%
- Basic Materials 1%
- Consumer Discretionary 1%
- Utilities 1%
- Real Estate 1%
Sector exposure is heavily tilted toward technology, with more than half the portfolio effectively riding on that broad theme and only modest allocations to other areas like industrials, telecom, health care, and financials. This tech‑centric structure, especially via semiconductors and growth indices, can benefit strongly from innovation cycles, AI, and digital adoption booms. However, it may also be more sensitive to interest‑rate changes, regulatory shifts, and sentiment reversals tied to growth stocks. Traditional diversified benchmarks typically have a more balanced mix across sectors, so this stance represents an intentional tilt. In practice, that means sharper peaks and deeper valleys compared with a more evenly spread sector allocation, particularly during periods when tech falls out of favor.
Regions
- North America 90%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Europe Developed 4%
- Japan 1%
Geographically, the portfolio is dominated by North America, with only a thin slice in developed markets elsewhere and minimal Japan or other regions. That US‑centric focus can be beneficial when domestic markets and the dollar are strong, and it aligns with many home‑market‑biased investors. However, it leaves relatively little exposure to other economies and currencies, which can behave differently across cycles and policy regimes. Global benchmarks usually spread risk more widely across regions, so this setup accepts higher dependence on one economic and regulatory system. Over time, that can amplify both the benefits and the risks of any US‑specific booms, busts, or policy surprises, especially since other regions play only a supporting role here.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 46%
- Large-cap 41%
- Mid-cap 12%
- Small-cap 1%
The portfolio is dominated by mega‑cap and large‑cap companies, with only small slices in mid‑ and small‑caps. Large and mega‑caps tend to be mature, widely followed businesses, often with more stable earnings and deeper liquidity than smaller firms. That can moderate some volatility versus a portfolio heavily tilted toward tiny, speculative names, even if the overall risk level is still high because of the sector and factor tilts. On the other hand, smaller companies sometimes offer different growth patterns and diversification benefits that are underrepresented here. This cap profile lines up with mainstream growth indices, which is reassuring from a liquidity and implementation standpoint, but it does limit exposure to potential small‑cap rebounds or distinct small‑company cycles.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 10.53%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
AV Broadcom Inc 5.36%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
TS Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 3.48%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 3.29%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
LR Lam Research Corp 2.60%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 2.30%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AM Advanced Micro Devices Inc 2.14%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
-
JN Johnson & Johnson 1.93%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.92%
Part of fund(s):- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
-
AS ASML Holding NV ADR 1.59%
Part of fund(s):- SPDR S&P World ex US
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Top 10 total 35.14%
The look‑through data shows big underlying exposure to a handful of high‑profile chip and mega‑cap growth names, led by NVIDIA and other semiconductor giants appearing across multiple ETFs. Overlap means the same company can effectively be owned several times, even if it looks diversified on the surface. Because the analysis only captures ETF top‑10 holdings, this concentration is likely understated. Hidden clustering like this can amplify both upside and downside when those few names move sharply. The key takeaway is that, while there are several funds listed, the underlying drivers are relatively narrow, so true diversification is less than the fund count suggests, especially in stressed market conditions.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor exposure shows a strong tilt toward momentum and a very low tilt to the size factor, meaning a clear preference for large, fast‑rising stocks over smaller or cheaper names. Momentum focuses on recent winners, which can boost returns during strong, trending markets but may hurt when trends reverse or leadership rotates. The low size exposure suggests less involvement in smaller companies that sometimes shine in early recoveries or domestic‑driven booms. With relatively low value, yield, and low‑volatility tilts, there isn’t much built‑in defense from cheaper, steadier, or higher‑income stocks. Over a full cycle, this factor mix typically produces a bumpier ride, and short‑term data can exaggerate how favorable momentum has recently been.
Risk contribution
-
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 29.79% 69.1% -
Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF
Weight: 35.05% 11.1% -
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF
Weight: 18.41% 10.0% -
FIDELITY ZERO TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUND
Weight: 13.08% 6.1% -
SPDR S&P World ex US
Weight: 3.52% 3.7% - Top 5 risk contribution 100.0%
Risk contribution, which shows how much each position drives overall volatility, is dominated by the semiconductor ETF. Despite being under one‑third of the portfolio by weight, it accounts for about two‑thirds of total risk, a risk‑to‑weight ratio above 2. This is a classic case where a single loud “instrument” dominates the orchestra. Other holdings, especially the broad market and momentum funds, contribute much less risk relative to their size. When one position or theme provides most of the risk, overall outcomes hinge heavily on how that segment performs. Adjusting position sizes or pairing it with more stabilizing exposures can help align realized risk with intended risk, particularly if that concentration wasn’t an explicit choice.
Redundant positions
-
High correlationFIDELITY ZERO TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUNDInvesco NASDAQ 100 ETFFidelity® Government Money Market FundVanEck Semiconductor ETFSPDR S&P World ex US
Correlation measures how often investments move together, with highly correlated assets offering less diversification when markets get rough. Several pairs here, including the total US market, NASDAQ 100, world ex‑US, and even the semiconductor ETF, show very similar historical movements in this short window. That suggests the funds, while labeled differently, have behaved like variations on the same equity theme recently. There is even a short‑period correlation between semiconductors and the money market fund, which is almost certainly a quirk of limited data rather than a stable relationship. With only about seven months of history, correlation patterns can easily shift, but this snapshot underlines that overlap in style and region reduces true diversification when it might be needed most.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
The risk‑return chart shows the current portfolio taking very high volatility for its expected return, sitting well below the efficient frontier. The efficient frontier represents the best achievable return for each risk level using just these holdings with different weights. Here, both the optimal and minimum‑variance portfolios have much higher Sharpe ratios, meaning better return per unit of risk, at dramatically lower volatility levels. In plain terms, the same building blocks could be rearranged to target either similar expected returns with far less risk or higher risk‑adjusted performance. Since all this is based on a short, unusually strong return history, the exact numbers are shaky, but the message is clear: rebalancing within current holdings could materially improve the trade‑off between ups and downs.
Dividends
- FIDELITY ZERO TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUND 1.10%
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.50%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.30%
- SPDR S&P World ex US 3.30%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.90%
- Fidelity® Government Money Market Fund 1.80%
- Weighted yield (per year) 0.76%
The overall dividend yield is modest at around 0.76%, with the higher‑yielding world ex‑US and money market allocations too small to move the needle much. Most of the heavy‑weight holdings are growth‑oriented strategies or tech‑tilted funds, which naturally focus more on price appreciation than income. For investors seeking regular cash flow, this level of yield would likely feel low and might require supplementing with other sources. On the positive side, a lower‑yield, growth‑focused setup can be very tax‑efficient in certain accounts, since more return comes through capital appreciation rather than frequent distributions. Given the short history, recent yield levels should be treated as indicative, not guaranteed, because payout policies and market conditions can change.
Ongoing product costs
- Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF 0.15%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- SPDR S&P World ex US 0.03%
- Invesco S&P 500® Momentum ETF 0.13%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.18%
The blended expense ratio of roughly 0.18% is impressively low for such targeted strategies, especially given the presence of niche and factor ETFs. Lower ongoing costs mean more of any future gains stay in the portfolio instead of going to providers, which compounds meaningfully over long horizons. The use of a zero‑fee total market fund and a very cheap global fund helps offset the slightly higher fees on the specialized semiconductor ETF. For an aggressive, factor‑tilted equity mix, this cost profile is a real strength and aligns well with best practices. Over decades, keeping expenses under tight control can sometimes rival asset selection in driving net outcomes.
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