Riding high on tech fumes with a small cap side quest and a suspiciously shiny short-term track record
Report created on Jul 4, 2026Risk profile
5/7
Diversification profile
3/5
Positions
-
VT Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
VTI - US9229087690 55.00% -
VX Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
VXUS - US9219097683 20.00% -
AV Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
AVUV - US0250728773 10.00% -
FM MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
FMTM 10.00% -
SM VanEck Semiconductor ETF
SMH - US92189F6768 5.00%
This portfolio is basically a U.S. stock market smoothie with a few spicy add-ins tossed on top. Over half sits in a broad U.S. index, another fifth in international stocks, and then someone bolted on small-cap value, hyperactive momentum, and a semiconductor rocket booster for fun. For a “growth” setup, it’s oddly sensible at the core and chaotic around the edges, like a Honda Civic with a spoiler and neon underglow. Structurally, it’s simple but not exactly subtle: one giant anchor, two medium satellites, and a tiny tech flamethrower. The mix screams, “I like the market… but also I want bragging rights if chips and trendy winners keep ripping.”
Growth
The performance chart looks like it’s been hitting pre-workout: $1,000 turned into $1,448 in about 1.3 years with a 33.48% CAGR. That easily beats both the U.S. and global benchmarks, which is impressive and also deeply suspicious. With a period this short, CAGR (the “average speed” of growth) is more roller coaster snapshot than long-term reality. The max drawdown of -13.89% is basically in line with the benchmarks, so the extra return didn’t come with extra visible pain yet. But one hot stretch, powered by tech and momentum, proves almost nothing about durability. This is more “lucky highlight reel” than proven track record.
Projection
The Monte Carlo projection is basically a nerdy “what if” machine: it runs thousands of possible futures based on past behavior and random noise. Here, the median outcome turns $1,000 into about $2,854 over 15 years, with a wide range from roughly breaking even to looking like a genius. The model spits out an 8.21% average annual return across simulations, which sounds nice, but it’s built on just 1.3 years of data. That’s like predicting someone’s whole career from their first performance review. The only honest read: outcomes are all over the place, and the current win streak doesn’t lock in anything.
Asset classes
- Stocks 100%
Asset classes: there is exactly one. This thing is 100% stocks, no bonds, no cash proxy, no anything-that-doesn’t-swing. It’s like walking into a buffet and piling only from the “spicy” section. That’s fine if the goal is growth and volatility is tolerated, but let’s not pretend there’s any built-in safety net here. When stocks are happy, this all-equity stance looks bold and smart. When they’re not, everything falls together in one big sulk. Asset class diversification usually means mixing things that misbehave at different times; this portfolio chose “one mood only: risk-on.”
Sectors
- Technology 33%
- Financials 14%
- Industrials 12%
- Consumer Discretionary 9%
- Health Care 8%
- Telecommunications 7%
- Energy 5%
- Consumer Staples 4%
- Basic Materials 3%
- Utilities 2%
- Real Estate 2%
Sector allocation is basically tech with friends. Technology at 33% is a clear addiction, with financials and industrials trailing behind as supporting characters. Then there’s a 5% semiconductor ETF acting like pure concentrated tech beta on steroids. Compared to a broad index, this is leaning hard into the “screen-glow economy.” Sector diversification exists, but it’s definitely secondary—more like a garnish than a real balance. When tech leads, this looks brilliant. When tech stumbles, that 33% headline plus stealth exposure via semis means the whole portfolio gets dragged into the correction like it forgot its stop-loss.
Regions
- North America 80%
- Europe Developed 8%
- Asia Developed 4%
- Japan 3%
- Asia Emerging 3%
- Australasia 1%
- Africa/Middle East 1%
- Latin America 1%
Geographically, this is America-first with a side salad: about 80% in North America, tiny crumbs everywhere else. The international fund tries its best, but it’s basically just background noise against the U.S. dominance. This is sold as “total international,” yet it’s clearly the junior partner here. Global diversification in theory means giving other regions a real voice; here, they get a faint whisper. If the U.S. keeps winning, that home tilt looks genius. If leadership rotates abroad, this setup is more “hope the U.S. stays the main character forever” than a truly worldly portfolio.
Market capitalization
- Mega-cap 34%
- Large-cap 27%
- Mid-cap 19%
- Small-cap 12%
- Micro-cap 6%
Market cap mix looks reasonably spread on paper: megacaps at 34%, large and mid caps filling most of the rest, with a noticeable 12% in small caps and 6% in micro. The twist is that the small-cap value ETF and the momentum and semiconductor tilts push that smaller end into the “spicier” part of the spectrum. So instead of boring small caps quietly diversifying things, you’ve got more volatile, style-heavy segments. It’s like saying, “We do small caps,” but then picking the rowdy table in the small-cap cafeteria. Not reckless, but definitely not aiming for calm.
True holdings
-
NV NVIDIA Corporation 4.41%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AA Apple Inc. 3.47%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MS Microsoft Corporation 2.53%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AM Amazon.com Inc 1.98%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
AV Broadcom Inc 1.91%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class A 1.68%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
GO Alphabet Inc Class C 1.31%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
MU Micron Technology Inc 1.22%
Part of fund(s):- VanEck Semiconductor ETF
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
ME Meta Platforms Inc. 1.05%
Part of fund(s):- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
-
TS Tesla Inc 0.93%
Part of fund(s):- LS 1x Tesla Tracker ETP Securities GBP
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
- Top 10 total 20.47%
Look-through holdings show the usual suspects hogging the spotlight: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, plus chip names like Broadcom and Micron. Even with only top-10 ETF data (and just ~30% coverage), the overlap is already obvious: the same tech giants appear again and again in different wrappers. That means the real exposure to these names is higher than it looks, especially since the semiconductor ETF funnels extra love toward chip-related players. Hidden concentration 101: owning three funds that all love the same stars is still one big bet, just with fancier packaging.
Factors
Factor exposures are estimated using statistical models based on historical data and measure systematic (market-relative) tilts, not absolute portfolio characteristics. Results may vary depending on the analysis period, data availability, and currency of the underlying assets.
Factor wise, this portfolio is quietly confused. Size exposure is “very low,” meaning it tilts away from smaller companies overall, even though there’s a dedicated small-cap value slice. Meanwhile, momentum is “high,” so the hidden recipe leans toward recently winning stocks. Factor exposure is basically the ingredient label of the portfolio; here it says, “chase recent winners but don’t lean much into genuine small stuff.” That’s like calling it a quirky underdog portfolio when most of the oomph still comes from trend-followers. The profile suggests it’ll love momentum-driven bull markets and sulk harder when trends abruptly flip.
Risk contribution
-
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 55.00% 52.9% -
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares
Weight: 20.00% 17.4% -
MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF
Weight: 10.00% 10.4% -
Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Weight: 10.00% 9.8% -
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Weight: 5.00% 9.5%
Risk contribution shows who’s actually shaking the boat, and surprise: the giant core fund is doing most of the heavy lifting. The total U.S. market ETF is 55% of the weight and about 53% of the risk, so it behaves as expected—no secret drama there. The real troublemaker is the 5% semiconductor ETF contributing 9.51% of total risk, almost double its weight. That’s the tiny shot of espresso keeping the whole drink jittery. Top three positions drive over 80% of risk, which means all the action comes from a few crowded lanes; the rest are more like background extras.
Risk vs. return
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
On the risk–return chart, this portfolio is that kid sitting just below the honor roll. It posts a strong Sharpe ratio of 1.42, but the efficient frontier says it could squeeze more out of the same ingredients. The max-Sharpe mix looks wild (way more return and risk), while the minimum-variance version actually has a slightly better Sharpe at lower volatility. And the portfolio sits about 1.86 percentage points below the frontier at its current risk level, which is textbook mediocrity: decent results, but not using the available mix efficiently. Same toys, slightly clumsy arrangement.
Dividends
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 1.30%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.20%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 1.10%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 2.60%
- MarketDesk Focused U.S. Momentum ETF 0.20%
- Weighted yield (per year) 1.28%
Dividend yield at 1.28% is a polite shrug rather than an income stream. The international fund does most of the heavy lifting here with a meaningfully higher yield; the momentum and semiconductor pieces are basically saying, “We’re here to chase price, not send you cash.” Dividend yield is just the cash part of total return, and in this setup it’s clearly a secondary character. This is a capital-growth portfolio dressed as such: reinvested gains, not mailbox money. Anyone pretending this is a dividend play is just reading the label and ignoring the tiny print.
Ongoing product costs
- Avantis® U.S. Small Cap Value ETF 0.25%
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF 0.35%
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares 0.03%
- Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 0.05%
- Weighted costs total (per year) 0.07%
Costs are almost suspiciously low: a 0.07% total expense ratio for a spicy, factor-flavored, tech-tilted lineup is borderline unfair to high-fee products. The core Vanguard funds are dirt cheap, and even the pricier small-cap value and semiconductor funds don’t drag the average into embarrassing territory. TER (the cut taken yearly by the funds) is basically couch-cushion level here. This is one area where the portfolio behaves like a responsible adult: no paying first-class prices for economy seats. If anything, the biggest “fee” risk isn’t cost—it’s whether the fancy tilts actually earn their keep over time.
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