This portfolio is heavily weighted towards large-cap U.S. equities, with a significant 64.08% in an S&P 500 ETF, 26.98% in a U.S. Small Cap Value ETF, and 8.94% in a NASDAQ 100 ETF. The concentration in these ETFs reflects a strong bias towards growth-oriented investments, primarily within the technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals sectors. However, the portfolio's diversification is limited, both in terms of asset classes and geographic exposure, with a staggering 99% allocated to North America.
Historically, this portfolio has delivered a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.72%, with a maximum drawdown of -23.11%. These figures suggest a high-growth trajectory, albeit with significant volatility. The concentration in high-growth sectors like technology has likely contributed to these strong returns, but it's important to note that past performance is not always indicative of future results.
Using Monte Carlo simulations, which project future outcomes based on historical data, the portfolio shows a wide range of potential future values. The 50th percentile outcome suggests a 774% increase, indicating optimistic growth potential. However, it's crucial to understand that these projections are hypothetical and subject to market risk and uncertainty.
The portfolio's allocation is entirely in stocks, with no diversification into other asset classes such as bonds or real estate. This singular focus enhances growth potential but also increases risk, particularly in market downturns where stocks are generally more volatile than other asset classes.
The sector allocation leans heavily towards technology, financial services, and consumer cyclicals, which are sectors often associated with higher growth but also higher volatility. This concentration can lead to significant performance swings during economic cycles, impacting portfolio stability.
With 99% of the portfolio's geographic allocation in North America, there's minimal exposure to international markets. This lack of global diversification can limit potential gains from emerging markets and increases vulnerability to regional economic downturns in North America.
The market capitalization breakdown shows a preference for mega and big-cap stocks, which are typically more stable than smaller companies. However, the inclusion of small and micro-cap stocks via the U.S. Small Cap Value ETF adds a layer of growth potential and risk.
This chart shows the Efficient Frontier, calculated using your current assets with different allocation combinations. It highlights the best balance between risk and return based on historical data. "Efficient" portfolios maximize returns for a given risk or minimize risk for a given return. Portfolios below the curve are less efficient. This is informational and not a recommendation to buy or sell any assets.
Click on the colored dots to explore allocations.
Considering the portfolio's current risk-return profile, there's room for optimization towards the Efficient Frontier, which could potentially enhance returns for a given level of risk. Adjusting the asset allocation to include a broader range of asset classes and geographic exposure might improve the portfolio's risk-adjusted returns.
The portfolio's dividend yield stands at 1.27%, contributed by the ETFs' underlying holdings. While not the primary focus, these dividends provide a source of passive income and can offer a cushion during market volatility.
The total expense ratio (TER) of 0.09% is impressively low, which is beneficial for long-term growth as costs can significantly impact net returns. The portfolio's emphasis on low-cost ETFs is a positive aspect, allowing more of the investment returns to compound over time.
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