A very gold heavy cautious portfolio with modest diversification and limited global stock exposure
Risikoprofil
- Sicher Spekulativ
Das Risikoprofil, abgeleitet aus vergangenen Marktschwankungen, zeigt das Risiko, dem das Portfolio ausgesetzt bist. Diese Bewertung hilft dabei, Deine Investitionen mit Deinen finanziellen Zielen und Deiner Risikobereitschaft in Einklang zu bringen.
Diversifikationsprofil
- Fokussiert Diversifiziert
Das Diversifikationsprofil bewertet die Verteilung von Anlagen über verschiedene Anlageklassen, Regionen und Branchen. Diese Bewertung hilft dabei, Risiken zu reduzieren, Renditen zu maximieren und eine Überkonzentration in einem einzelnen Bereich zu vermeiden.
Für welchen Anlegertyp dieses Portfolio geeignet ist
Vorsichtige Anleger
This setup suits someone with a cautious to moderately conservative attitude who is especially worried about economic or financial crises. The ideal holder values capital protection and peace of mind more than squeezing out every last bit of return. They likely have a medium‑ to long‑term horizon, are comfortable with gold as a key stabilizer, and can tolerate modest ups and downs but not deep drawdowns. Their goals might include preserving savings, slowly growing wealth for retirement, or keeping a safety buffer that should hold up when markets get rough, even if that means accepting lower income and potentially lower long‑term growth.
Positionen
-
Xetra-Gold
4GLD - DE000A0S9GB0 70,47% -
Xtrackers Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF 1D
XSX7 - LU2581375156 13,77% -
iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term € Corp UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)
30IG - IE000LX17BP9 8,69% -
Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF
VGWL - IE00B3RBWM25 7,07%
The most striking thing here is the huge tilt toward Xetra-Gold at over 70%, with only about 21% in stocks and 9% in bonds. This is very different from typical cautious benchmarks, which usually rely more on bonds and cash rather than such a big single “other” asset. That large gold position acts as a hedge and can protect during crises, but it also concentrates risk in one theme. It may help to think about gradually balancing this by increasing the mix of bond and global equity exposure over time, so that long‑term growth and stability do not depend mainly on how one asset behaves.
Für dieses Portfolio liegen nur begrenzt historische Daten vor, was die Aussagekraft der berechneten Werte verringert.
Wachstum
Historically, this mix has done extremely well, with an eye‑catching CAGR of about 31%. Imagine putting in €10,000 a few years ago and watching it grow much faster than most conservative portfolios. The max drawdown of around -7% is also very mild, suggesting past volatility was relatively low. But this strong record is likely driven by a particularly favorable period for gold and cannot be assumed to repeat. Past performance is not a guarantee, especially when one asset dominates. It could be helpful to stress‑test expectations and mentally prepare for the possibility that future returns might be far more normal.
Aufgrund begrenzter historischer Daten könnten hier extreme Werte angezeigt werden, die nicht realistisch sind.
Prognose
The Monte Carlo analysis runs 1,000 simulated future paths using historical data patterns to estimate possible outcomes. Think of it like replaying history with slight variations to see a range of end values. The median scenario shows over 1,000% total growth, and even the 5th percentile is very high, with all simulations positive. This looks amazing on paper but is heavily based on how gold behaved in the past. Monte Carlo can’t foresee regime changes, policy shifts, or long quiet periods in gold. It can be useful to treat these results as optimistic “what if” scenarios, not as a plan you can rely on.
Anlageklassen
- Aktien 21%
- Anleihen 9%
- Cash 0%
- Sonstige 0%
- Keine Daten 0%
Across asset classes, the mix is roughly 21% stock, 9% bond, and the rest effectively in gold, which falls outside traditional stock/bond categories. Most cautious benchmarks would typically have a higher share of bonds and perhaps some cash to smooth returns. The solid bond slice here maturing in 2030 is a nice anchor for stability and income visibility. Still, the low bond weight means that downside protection depends more on gold than on fixed income. It could be helpful to consider whether adding some high‑quality bond or cash‑like exposure might make the ride smoother without changing the overall cautious risk profile too much.
Branchen
- Finanzen 5%
- Industriegüter 3%
- Technologie 3%
- Gesundheitswesen 2%
- Zyklische Konsumgüter 2%
- Basiskonsumgüter 2%
- Telekommunikation 1%
- Grundstoffe 1%
- Energie 1%
- Versorgungsunternehmen 1%
- Immobilien 0%
Sector exposure comes indirectly through the equity ETFs and looks fairly spread, with financials, industrials, technology, healthcare, and consumer areas all present in small slices. This is good news: the equity part itself is well diversified and quite similar to common broad‑market benchmarks, which is a strong indicator of sensible construction. However, because equities are only about a fifth of the whole, sector swings will have less impact than moves in gold. If you ever decide to grow the equity share, keeping this broad sector mix rather than heavy tilts toward a single theme can help keep risk under control while participating in different parts of the economy.
Regionen
- Europa 14%
- Nordamerika 5%
- Asien Schwellenländer 0%
- Japan 0%
- Asien 0%
- Europa Schwellenländer 0%
- Australasia 0%
- Afrika/Mittlerer Osten 0%
- Lateinamerika 0%
Geographically, the equity exposure leans toward developed Europe, with a smaller stake in North America and almost nothing in other regions. While this works fine and matches many European‑based benchmarks on the equity portion, it does miss out on some of the diversification benefits of Asia, Japan, and emerging markets. On the plus side, this keeps things simple and familiar, which many cautious investors prefer. If global balance becomes a goal, slowly increasing the share of truly global equity exposure can spread economic and political risk across more regions without drastically raising overall portfolio risk, especially if done gradually and with small position changes.
Marktkapitalisierung
- Sehr groß 10%
- Groß 7%
- Mittel 3%
- Klein 0%
- Mikro 0%
By market capitalization, the equity slice is tilted toward large and mega‑cap companies, with almost nothing in small or micro caps. Large caps are typically more established businesses with steadier earnings and generally lower volatility, which fits well with a cautious risk profile. This alignment is a clear positive: it keeps the equity risk more manageable while still capturing broad market growth. The flip side is slightly reduced long‑term return potential compared to a mix that includes more smaller companies. If risk tolerance ever increases, a modest shift to include more mid and small caps could boost growth potential, but it’s not necessary for a conservative approach.
Ausschüttungen
- Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF 0,80%
- Gewichtete Ausschüttungen (pro Jahr) 0,06%
Dividend yield from the equity part is modest, with the global ETF yielding under 1% and the overall portfolio yield almost negligible once gold is included. This setup favors capital growth and crisis protection over regular income. For investors who don’t need much cash flow today, that’s perfectly fine and keeps the focus on total return. If reliable income becomes a bigger goal later, gradually shifting a portion of the allocation into more income‑focused options or raising the bond share could help. It’s important to remember that higher yield often comes with higher risk, so any income tilt should be done carefully and in small steps.
Laufende Produktkosten
- Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF 0,19%
- Gewichtete Gesamtkosten (pro Jahr) 0,01%
Costs look impressively low overall, with the main global equity ETF charging around 0.19% and an estimated total cost near 0.01% on the snapshot. Keeping fees down is one of the few things investors can fully control, and this portfolio is clearly on the right track here. Over long periods, even small cost differences compound significantly, leaving more of the return in your pocket. It can be useful to continue favoring simple, broadly diversified, low‑fee instruments when making any changes, and to avoid expensive niche products unless there is a very clear and deliberate reason to include them.
Risiko vs. Rendite
Dieser Chart zeigt die Efficient Frontier, berechnet auf Basis deiner aktuellen Positionen mit unterschiedlichen Gewichtungen. Er hebt das beste Verhältnis zwischen Risiko und Rendite hervor, basierend auf historischen Daten. "Effiziente" Portfolios maximieren die Rendite für ein gegebenes Risiko oder minimieren das Risiko für eine gegebene Rendite. Portfolios unterhalb der Kurve sind weniger effizient. Diese Grafik dient nur zu Informationszwecken und stellt keine Empfehlung zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Wertpapieren dar.
Risk versus return could likely be improved using an Efficient Frontier approach. The Efficient Frontier is a line that shows the best possible risk‑return trade‑offs for different mixes of the existing holdings, assuming only allocation changes and no new products. With such a heavy gold weight, shifting a bit more into the existing bonds and global equities might move the portfolio closer to that line, offering similar risk with potentially higher expected return. “Efficient” here doesn’t mean perfect or fully diversified; it just means getting the most expected return for a chosen level of volatility using the current set of building blocks.
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